Map of the location of the island in the South China Sea. China Daily Mail
Assessing The Risk Of War In The South China Sea (2014 Edition) -- Comparativist
I wrote more than a year ago that there was little reason to worry that the Scarborough Shoal incident would turn into a war, as many feared, because the structural dynamics were such that there was no way for the Philippine or Chinese navy to fight. I am writing now because I think there is reason for concern over a recent report that the Chinese military has plans to seize Pag-Asa Island off the coast of Palawan (also see The Diplomat’s analysis).
Unlike the Scarborough Shoal, it is occupied by Philippine civilians and military personnel. It is also significantly further south than the shoal and is a sizable enough
piece of land that people might fight, and die, to protect. In fact, it is difficult to imagine a scenario where China takes Pag-Asa without killing some of the Filipino soldiers there. Successfully taking the island would give the Chinese PLA an airfield with the ability to project military power up to the Malaysian border and the lower reaches of Vietnam.
Read more ....
Update: What If China Did Invade Pag-asa Island? -- Carl Thayer, The Diplomat
Previous Post: China Set To Seize Philippine Island By Force
My Comment: If China uses it's military forces to enforce any of it's "land claims" .... it would only spark an overwhelming response from everyone who borders China because they would then believe that they would be next. But here is the worrisome part .... I sometimes wonder if China really cares on what anyone else may think.
1 comment:
I disagree with that assessment. I believe China's neighbours will take a 'wait and see' approach if China decides to enforce any land claims.
I'm sure they'll put their forces on alert, and I'm sure funds will be diverted to 'defense', but, an overwhelming response? Unlikely and such timely co-ordination would be impossible with relations as they are in Asia.
No individual country is likely to jump into the deep end of the pool unless they all decide to do it, and thats unlikely.
I'm sure we all remember WW2 and Germany, and how there was a lot of sitting around on hands while Poland was getting taken and there are more examples of 'sitting on hands' in ww2.
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