Why A New Ukraine Is The Kremlin's Worst Nightmare -- Andrew Wilson, The Independent
The domino effect of democracy on Russia's border threatens the entire system Putin has built since 2000 - and he will not let it go lightly
The details still need to be decided, but the revolutionaries have won in Ukraine. Some elements of the old regime may survive, but that is precisely why the protesters on the “Maidan” (Kiev’s main square) don’t trust the mainstream politicians who claim to be negotiating on their behalf.
The politicians in suits can do the donkey work – writing a new constitution to improve on the old one they have just restored, and trying to save the collapsing economy. But the Maidan leaders in the fatigues and helmets will set the agenda on justice – dismantling the militia and reworking the corrupt legal system, so that the many guilty end up behind bars. And there are credible reports that the snipers who killed more than 70 on Thursday were based in the government buildings that are already being occupied by protesters combing for evidence. Once the world knows who gave the deadly orders, justice will decapitate the old regime. And the “official” opposition will be radicalised by the need to compete with the moral authority of the Maidan.
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My Comment: For the moment .... Russia will stay out of Ukrainian politics. But once the situation stabilizes .... and if Ukrainian nationalists pursue their agenda .... expect no favors from Russia but do expect the following .... higher gas prices, no debt relief, stricter visa enforcement, and ridiculous tariffs on Ukrainian goods. And if violence and civil war becomes a reality in Ukraine .... all bets are off.
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