Monday, March 24, 2014

How Large Is Russia's Military Presence On The Borders Of Ukraine



Russia Says It Is Complying With Troop Limits Near Ukraine Border -- Reuters

* NATO says Russia has big force at Ukraine's border
* Deputy defence minister says Russia "has nothing to hide" (Adds quotes, background)

(Reuters) - Russia's defence ministry said on Sunday that it was complying with international troop limits near its border with Ukraine, after NATO's top military commander voiced concern over what he said was a large Russian force on Ukraine's eastern border.

"The Russian Defence Ministry is in compliance with all international agreements limiting the number of troops in the border areas with Ukraine," Russian Deputy Defence Minister Anatoly Antonov was quoted by Russian news agencies as saying.

NATO's Supreme Allied Commander Europe, U.S. Air Force General Philip Breedlove, earlier on Sunday called the Russian force near its Ukrainian border "very, very sizeable and very, very ready". He said he was worried it could pose a threat to Moldova's mainly Russian-speaking separatist Transdniestria region.

Read more ....

More News On Russia's Military Presence On The Borders Of Ukraine

Russia says it is complying with troop limits near Ukraine border -- The Guardian
Russia denies massing troops on Ukrainian border -- AFP
Moscow: No troop build-up or undeclared military activity near Ukraine borders -- RT
European inspectors report no Russia’s military build-up on Ukraine border -- Voice of Russia

My Comment: Ukraine's population is almost 50 million .... realistically .... 20,000 to 30,000 Russian troops will not be able to invade and hold significant parts of Ukraine .... there just not enough boots on the ground to accomplish such a goal. If anything .... these forces are there to send a warning and to be in position in the event that the eastern part of Ukraine implodes into violence and sectarian bloodshed. If Russia mobilizes it's reserves and puts 200,000 soldiers on the Ukraine border .... that is when you will get my attention that they may actually invade Ukraine proper.

2 comments:

Nicholas Darkwater said...

But is it enough to seize and hold the Donets Basin, just like they did Crimea? Particularly against the withered Ukrainian army? A factor is that the Donbas isn't nearly as defensible for the Russians as Crimea, in case the Ukrainians want to forge a long-range strategy to get it back, but it should be a scenario that should be considered.

War News Updates Editor said...

The city of Donetsk has a majority Russian population. The rural region is primarily Ukrainian .... but for most of the people in this province Russian is their primary language. In the worse scenario .... the Russian military will need the support of local militias .... which I suspect that they will get. Absent this support .... the country side will be hard to control .... and with it's many wooded areas .... a fertile area for an insurgency.