Loud + Weak = War

President Barack Obama talks with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin at his dacha outside Moscow, Russia, July 7, 2009 (White House/Pete Souza)

Loud + Weak = War -- Victor Davis Hanson, NRO

China and Russia are no more impressed with empty bluster today than Japan was in 1941.

The Roosevelt administration once talked loudly of pivoting to Asia to thwart a rising Japan. As a token of its seriousness, in May 1940 it moved the home port of the Seventh Fleet from San Diego to Pearl Harbor — but without beefing up the fleet’s strength.

The then-commander of the Pacific Fleet, Admiral James O. Richardson, an expert on the Japanese Imperial Navy, protested vehemently over such a reckless redeployment. He felt that the move might invite, but could not guard against, surprise attack.

Richardson was eventually relieved of his command and his career was ruined — even as he was later proved right when Japan attacked Pearl Harbor on December 7, 1941.

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My Comment: I always enjoy reading Victor Davis Hanson's commentaries .... and while I am in agreement with him that U.S. - Russian relations are at the worst since the end of the Cold War .... I do disagree with his assertion that Putin took advantage of the crisis in Ukraine because of what he perceived was weakness from the White House. The fact of the matter is that Ukraine was (and is) a crisis that Putin probably wish he could do without. It climaxed near the end of the Sochi Olympics .... an Olympics that was a showpiece for him .... and it is a crisis that has created (and still is creating) a great deal of turmoil on both sides of the Ukraine - Russian border. I also see his annexation of Crimea as a (last minute) desperate move that was done to placate the fears of many Russians in Ukraine who felt at the time that they were under threat from the new interim Ukrainian government .... a decision that was probably not easy but one that was done because his other options were even worse (invading the eastern part of Ukraine proper). As to Russia seeing America as a weak country .... I never had the impression when I was growing up there (even when President Cater was in the White House)  .... and when I talk with family and friends back in Russia today .... they certainly do not see the U.S. or President Obama as "weak". A President that is indecisive and unsure who tries to avoid difficult situations .... definitely .... but weak .... never.

Update: I know that my opinion is a minority opinion .... most see Putin as diabolical and Machiavellian who wants to rewrite history and is taking advantage of the current "isolationist mood" in the U.S. to pursue his expansionist agenda ... all that I can say is we should let history work it's course. Putin is just a man who has weaknesses and many opponents in Moscow and abroad .... he may be on top today, but Russia is a big country and the regions that border it are even bigger .... and many of them are not buying into his vision of the future.

Another commentary that is forceful in pointing out President Obama's "weakness" and Putin's "determination" is from the former US Sec. of Defense Robert Gates .... Putin's Challenge to the West: Russia has thrown down a gauntlet that is not limited to Crimea or even Ukraine -- Robert Gates, Wall Street Journal