Russian President Vladimir Putin. © RIA Novosti. Aleksey Nikolskii
Three Reasons Putin Will March Into Eastern Ukraine. And Three He Won’t. -- Howard LaFranchi, Christian Science Monitor
Putin and Obama agreed Friday to seek a 'diplomatic path' to resolve the crisis. But what Putin intends is unclear. Here are reasons for and against his sending forces into eastern Ukraine.
Concerns are growing that Russian President Vladimir Putin may be preparing to launch a lightning military strike into eastern Ukraine, as US military officials report suspicious increases in the number of Russian troops amassed on the Russian-Ukraine border.
Even President Obama has gotten into the speculation about Mr. Putin’s intentions, saying in an interview with CBS News released Friday that the Russians might “simply” be trying to “intimidate” Ukraine’s struggling interim government – “or it may be that they’ve got additional plans.”
Calling on Putin not to “revert back to the kinds of practices that … were prevalent during the cold war,” Mr. Obama urged the Russian leader to “de-escalate the situation” and “move back” Russian troops from the border.
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My Comment: Putin will give the order to the military to invade eastern Ukraine if (and only if) Ukraine implodes. If that does not happen, he will then use Russian political and economic levers (trade, natural gas, guest workers, financial credits, etc.) to get what he wants from Ukraine.
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