The U.S. Will Not Make Any Military Moves Against Russia (Commentary)

Experts: U.S. Won’t Make Any Military Moves -- Jack Encarnacao, Boston Herald

In a high-stakes diplomatic trek to Europe this week, President Obama and Secretary of State John F. Kerry will seek to quell discontent from European allies about America’s failure to take any significant action over Russia’s invasion of Crimea, though experts predict calls for concrete military moves still will go unheeded.

“We’ve lost deterrence,” said Victor Davis Hanson, a military historian and senior fellow at the Hoover Institution. “It’s very hard to create, and it’s very easy to lose. Now Obama’s going to try to rhetorically restore it, and they’re going to ask for a concrete action, and I don’t think he’s capable of that, because it would require some sacrifice.”

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My Comment: Because I speak Russian .... I follow the Russian news websites very closely. I also have a lot of relatives in Russia and in Ukraine .... and they are constantly feeding me information on what is happening on the ground. Bottom line .... the perception in Russia is that the White House is going to do nothing .... and while the U.S. will project a "tough image" publicly, everyone in Russia believes that privately they have no interest to get involved. In Ukraine .... many are hoping that the U.S. will get involved .... but also acknowledge the fact that they will not and have adjusted themselves accordingly. As to what is my take .... there are no good options .... but a more robust U.S. military/political/economic sanctions/etc. response  will be a shock to many Russians (because they are not expecting it) .... and the backlash against the West will probably be severe. What that response will be is hard to quantify .... but politically U.S. - Russian relations will go into the deep feeze, and their will be zero Russian assistance in other trouble spots around the world (i.e. Syria, Iran's nuclear program, etc.). As to the military option ... if the U.S. sends weapons to Ukraine it will result in an even greater backlash from Russia to get involved .... and that involvement will be to support secessionist movements in eastern Ukraine. If the U.S. sends military advisers and soldiers to assist Ukraine .... Russia will perceive this as a grave national security threat, and in that case all bets are off and anything (and everything) will be possible.