What War With China Would Look Like

A color guard of US and Chinese flags awaits the plane of China's President Hu Jintao at Andrews Air Force Base, Maryland in this April 12, 2010 file photo. Jonathan Ernst/Reuters/File

Why The US And Its Allies Must Rethink Their China War Plans -- Peter Layton, The Interpreter

The rise of China has returned to prominence Thucydides' explanation of the epochal Peloponnesian War: 'It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this inspired in Sparta that made war inevitable.' This warning seems to be borne out by historical analysis, which apparently indicates that there's a 75% chance of war as China replaces America in the global pecking order. China's assertive new Air Defence Identification Zone and its nine-dash line claims appear to support such fears.

In response, a new and influential cottage industry has arisen examining how America and its close allies might fight China, with the debate oscillating between concepts known as 'air-sea battle', 'offshore control' and 'blockade'. What's behind these concepts, and what do they mean for Australia?

Air-sea battle came first and defined the genre's boundaries. The concept was first publicly advocated by the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (CSBA) think tank, was endorsed in the 2010 Quadrenial Defense Review and is now run out of a special Pentagon Office. It has progressively become the modern way the US plans to undertake power projection from the global commons.

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My Comment: A sobering analysis on what war with China would look like. In short .... a war of attrition that will be long, bloody, and (economically speaking) very costly.