Will Russia Be Able To Hold Crimea?

Crimea and Punishment -- Mary Mycio, Slate

Vladimir Putin is miscalculating how easy it will be to control a Crimean mini-state.

With events in Ukraine changing so quickly, it is impossible to predict what will happen next. But now that the Russian parliament has rubber-stamped Russian President Vladimir Putin’s request to invade the country, a few observations are already in order.

What seems to have happened in the Crimea this week is a grotesque imitation of the Maidan protests that ousted former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych from office. Under the cover of some street protesters, masked self-defense forces with the help of Ukrainian Berkut—evidently including units responsible for the crackdown in Kiev—captured government buildings to force a political decision to recognize Yanukovych as the president of Ukraine. Armed gunmen without identifying insignia captured two airports (as well as a center for investigative journalism), disrupted communications with the mainland, and are blocking some Ukrainian military bases on the peninsula. Early Saturday morning, the Crimean government then requested Russia’s help, as did Yanukovych, who is now obviously Putin’s puppet. That then let Putin plausibly deny his actions as an invasion, casting it instead as an internal Ukrainian affair. No shots have been fired, yet.

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My Comment: I have trouble seeing the Crimean civilian population being against the Russian occupation .... many have been calling for it for a long time. Throw in the new Ukrainian government's anti-Russian language laws .... and this only ensures calls for independence from Ukraine to escalate. Crimea's dependence on Ukraine for it's water and electricity is a vulnerability .... and could be used against Russian attempts at annexing the peninsula .....but shutting it off would only enrage everyone in Crimea even more against the Kiev government.