Can Russia Successfully Invade Ukraine?

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Russia’s armies and possible invasion zones. Swedish Defense Research Agency/Ministry of Defense illustration

Could Russia Defeat A Ukrainian Insurgency? -- Robert Beckhusen, War is Boring

The 40,000 Russian troops along the Ukrainian border are not enough for an extended campaign

There’s no doubt the Russian military has the means to invade mainland Ukraine. But whether it can hold conquered territory is another question—especially if Kiev puts up a fight.

That’s the conclusion of the Swedish Defense Research Agency, Stockholm’s government-funded military think tank.

The agency—known as FOI—doesn’t doubt that Russia can invade. But it does question whether Moscow has the ability to secure territory in mainland Ukraine, given the potential size of the area Russia would need to secure—and absent the natural defensive barriers of Crimea, which Moscow annexed in March.

Unlike Crimea, eastern Ukraine would be hard for an occupying force to defend. Russian troops could find it difficult to prevent insurgents from infiltrating their lines.

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My Comment: I have been saying the same thing for the past two weeks .... but kudos to Robert Beckhusen for doing this focused analysis on Russian capabilities. In short .... Russia has the potential to invade and hold certain regions .... but such an operation will be stretched with the limited resources that Russia has it's disposal.