The Guns of April? -- Andrew J. Stravers, National Interest
Secret mobilizations. Attacks with plausible deniability. Unclear alliance commitments. Vague statements of resolve. A battle for neutral parties. Highly provocative military movements. We have seen these events take place in the last few weeks in the crisis in Ukraine. We also saw these same dynamics at play almost exactly one hundred years ago on the eve of World War I.
The major powers of Continental Europe were maneuvering, and the wheels of war creaked into motion. In the coming battle, swift mobilization would be key, but even more important was the commitment of a powerful third party. Britain closely aligned with France, but British policy prioritized a free hand in Continental affairs and did not want to jeopardize the sizable British trade with Germany. No one could be sure where the greatest sea power on Earth would stand.
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My Comment: I have trouble seeing such an event happening in today's Europe. There is no appetite for conflict on both sides of the Atlantic .... from the leadership on down. Even Putin does not want war, and while he is certainly creating the perception that he will go to war to protect Russian minorities in neighboring states .... his actions have been limited and measured (so far).
This crisis has it's origins in Ukraine .... and it is here that the crisis will need to be defused ... starting (I hope) with a newly elected Ukrainian government (in May) that will try to find some political accommodation among Ukrainians and Russians within Ukraine itself. Failing that I can then easily predict a catastrophe for Ukraine .... and accusations that Russia has deployed a a few hundred Russian Special Ops forces in eastern Ukraine will be quickly replaced by multiple reports of thousands of Russian Special ops units and forces flooding eastern and southern Ukraine .... and after that, anything will then be possible.
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