Eastern Ukraine Is Not Like Crimea

Armed men in masks, representing Ukrainian special forces, stand guard outside the regional administration building in Kharkiv, April 8, 2014. Ukraine has launched an "anti-terrorist" operation in the eastern city of Kharkiv and about 70 "separatists" have been arrested for seizing the regional administration building, Ukrainian Interior Minister Arsen Avakov said. REUTERS/Olga Ivashchenko

A Russian Invasion of East Ukraine Would Make Crimea Seem Like a Cinch -- Time

Separatist violence in eastern Ukraine has set the stage for another Russian invasion, but it would bring risks and gains far beyond those involved in Crimea

The newest wave of separatism in eastern Ukraine feels very familiar. In the last few days, protesters waving Russian flags have seized government buildings by force, barricaded themselves inside, declared their intention to break away from Ukraine and appealed to Russia to send in troops to protect them. At every step, they followed the script that ended last month with the Russian annexation of Crimea. But the stage this time didn’t seem to fit the performance.

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My Comment: This Time post outlines the nightmare scenario. An unprovoked Russian invasion of east Ukraine will entail the deployment of almost 100,000 soldiers, and an occupation that would probably last for decades .... coupled with a low level insurgency. The other consequences would be the following .... immediate sanctions against Russia and the start of a new 'Cold War'. A guaranteed European recession coupled with global financial markets being shaken to the core. Chaos throughout Ukraine. Ukraine - Russian communities at war with each other. Purges and ethnic cleansing occurring en-masse. A million plus refugees fleeing eastern Ukraine .... and millions of Ukrainians fleeing Ukraine not because of the military invasion .... but more because the economy would have collapsed. In such a scenario .... the bitterness will last for generations.

I suspect that Putin is seeing this the same way that I am .... the risks are high and the consequences of what happens if things go wrong are even higher. That is why I believe that Putin will do nothing overt right now .... he will exert financial/economic and political pressure .... and he will position himself that in the event of a Ukrainian implosion, he can act quickly .... especially if eastern Ukraine begs him for an intervention. Considering how inept the interim Ukraine government has been .... and the lack of financial help from the West .... that day may come sooner that what many people may think. But on the flip side .... if Ukraine does end up with a stable government that enacts reforms and treats all minorities with justice and respect .... and Western aid does come through .... this "Russia threat" will melt away like snow in springtime.