Putin Is Riding On A Crest Of Russian Nationalism

Russian President Vladimir Putin (RIA Novosti/Alexei Druzhinin)

Putin: Russia’s Great Propagandist -- Kathrin Hille, Financial Times

Putin’s use of Soviet-era symbolism has alarmed those already fearful for the country’s democratic institutions.

Igor Dolutsky finds nothing unusual in disagreeing with everyone around him. In the 35 years he has been teaching history in Moscow schools, his habit of questioning official narratives and challenging political taboos has cost him his job more than once.

But when the mild-mannered 60-year-old tried to discuss Russia’s annexation of Crimea in class, things almost got out of hand. “My students swore at me and said I wasn’t telling the truth,” he says. “Then they said I didn’t love Russia or the Russian people, and told me to leave the country.”

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My Comment: This Financial Times post is a long read .... but for Russia watchers .... a must one to read. As regular readers know .... I am not a fan of Putin .... I may not know who he is .... but I do know what he is. Fortunately .... so do most Russians. For the moment he is enjoying a burst of popularity .... but that is all that it is .... a momentary burst of popularity that is primarily based on nationalism. Poll numbers show that 80% support his policies .... from my own read and analysis I think it is much closer to 100%. All of my Russian friends, family, business associates, acquaintances, etc .... they all support Putin .... I am the lone voice in this wilderness .... but that is OK .... I am use to it. But what is interesting about Putin's support .... and everyone in the West should take solace in this .... is that while most Russians are supporting .... 60% (if not more) also strongly believe that Putin should not run for a second term .... and this opinion is solid.

In the West .... Putin may seem invincible .... but he is not. His Achilles Heel is the economy, and if the economy goes into he toilet .... so will his popularity. There are also many Russians in positions of influence, wealth, and power who do not like Putin .... they never did .... and they never will. Putin was never the choice of the elites of Russia .... but they have both learned to live and work together. Putin can play President .... the elites can make money and enjoy life.

The crisis in Ukraine is now changing everything .... especially the status quo in regards to borders and how Russian minorities should be treated. And while many in the West like to believe that Putin has had a big hand in causing this .... I tend to differ. I find Putin to be more of a man who is reacting to events that are unfolding .... not causing them. Ukraine is a political/economic/social mess .... and everyone in Russia knows this. Defend the Russian minority in the event that they are threatened .... no one in Russia will say no to that. But invade Ukraine and be responsible for taking care of it's 46 million citizens .... every Russian will answer by giving you a blank stare because no one is interested in doing that. Putin knows this .... that is why his behavior is now easy to predict. Threaten, cajole, complain while being wrapped in the Russian flag .... classic Putin tactics. You also pick your battles where you know that you will win ... that is why Crimea was such an easy decision for Putin to make .... almost all of them wanted to join Russia in the first place. But Ukraine is an entirely different situation .... to commit to war .... to make that final decision to send troops .... I predict that he will not do it unless forced to. He knows that if he orders the invasion of Ukraine every Russian will rally around the flag and support him .... but as the costs in lives and treasure rises .... discontent in Putin's rule will also rise .... starting with the elites and the urban populations. And Putin knows that it is those elites and popultions .... if aroused .... are the ones who have the real power to force him into an early retirement .... a retirement that he is not yet ready for.