Sunday, April 13, 2014

Ukraine Is Turning Into The ‘Worst Case Scenario’



Ukraine Tension Turns Deadly in ‘Worst Case Scenario’ -- Bloomberg Businessweek

Ukrainian security forces battled pro-Russian gunmen in the eastern town of Slovyansk, with both sides suffering casualties, in what European Union member Poland called “the worst-case scenario” for the country.

A day after Ukrainian officials accused Russia of “external aggression,” camouflaged gunmen fired on units deployed by the government in Kiev in an anti-terror operation near Slovyansk, about 240 kilometers (150 miles) from the Russian frontier, Interior Minister Arsen Avakov said today on Facebook. One serviceman was killed and five were wounded, with an unknown number of dead on the separatist side, he said.

Read more ....

My Comment: Ukraine has now become a deeply divided country. And while the international focus has been on Russia's involvement in fermenting the crisis, the fact is that the interim government in Kiev has made the situation even worse. Anti-Russian laws, no representation on the cabinet level in the interim government, the purging of Russians from government positions, appointing well known oligarchs to administer eastern Ukraine territories, failure and/or inability to pay salaries and pensions in eastern Ukraine, etc. .... all of these actions have brought Ukraine to the point where it is today. Even as Ukraine Special forces are engaging in battles with pro-Russian gunmen in the eastern town of Slovyansk, other cities are now being seized by pro-Russian separatists. But what is more worrisome is that the miners .... the backbone of the Ukraine economy and the group that has been identified as the first group that helped in the collapse of the Soviet Union .... are now getting involved in this crisis. If the miners are involved .... the dynamics on the ground are going to change fast.

As regular readers of this blog know .... I have friends and family in Ukraine .... and in eastern Ukraine my aunt and her family lives in Kharkiv. In Kharkiv .... the number one worry has always been about the economy, having work, and being paid. The politics in Kiev, Moscow , and in the West has not resonated in the minds of most people in this region .... that is until today. Reports of fighting, casualties, troop movements, threats from Kiev .... I know that these actions are only going to further exacerbate the situation. If this situation does not de-escalate in the next 24 - 48 hours .... expect an open armed revolt in may parts of eastern Ukraine.

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