Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a meeting with the permanent members of the Russian Security Council in his residence of Novo-Ogaryovo outside Moscow on April 11, 2014. (Photo credit: AFP/RIA Novosti/Presidential Press Service/Alexey Druzhinin)
Putin Can Take Ukraine Without An Invasion, And Probably Will -- Jamie Dettmer, Daily Beast
Andrei Illarionov, a Putin advisor turned critic, has been predicting the twists of the Ukraine crisis. Now he says Putin will be able to achieve his goals without firing a shot.
A former top advisor to Vladimir Putin says the Russian president probably thinks at this point he can whip Ukraine back into line without having to resort to a full-blown invasion. Although it appears no Western power is willing to take military action to defend Kiev, overt Russian military action would risk deeper and more disruptive Western economic sanctions. So Putin’s willingness to play a longer-term game rests on his “cynical recognition” that he has three years to accomplish his objective before there is a change of leadership in the White House and the possibility of a more resolute American response.
“Putin’s objective remains to regain control of Ukraine, but I suspect he now thinks he can do this without ordering in the tanks,” says Andrei Illarionov, a former Putin economic policy advisor and now an unstinting critic of the Russian leader.
Illarionov tells The Daily Beast he expects Putin to maintain an intimidating offensive build-up of Russian forces along the Ukraine border, nonetheless, and that there will be no let-up in the fomenting of separatist agitation in the eastern Ukraine towns of Donetsk, Kharkiv, Lugansk and now Sloviansk. The aim is to destabilize Ukrainian politics, weaken Ukrainian state institutions and help Putin’s political allies reassert their power in Kiev.
Read more ....
My Comment: This analysis has one flaw .... the Russian dominated part of eastern Ukraine has other ideas and they may not conform to Putin's plan. I know that today's violence is having an impact in Moscow .... I know because Putin and his senior advisers have been quiet. My read of Putin in the past has been that when a crisis erupts .... he goes quiet for 2-3 days .... and after that the decision is then made and we will know about it. In regards to eastern Ukraine .... Moscow must be deeply troubled with what they are seeing. If the bloodshed gets out of hand .... and scores of pro-Russian supporters start to be killed, Putin will be put under tremendous pressure to respond .... and I know that he will respond even if it means more western sanctions and being politically ostracized on the international scene. My prediction .... if the violence in Ukraine does not de-escalate in the next 2-3 days, it will force Putin to "cross the Rubicon", and after that anything and everything is possible.
2 comments:
LOOL Pro Russian Supporters? Do you truly think that is common people that is taking up arms? You are very funny lol
Check this : http://imgur.com/cPvajSm
Hope that the braves Ukrainians can get some juice of this bastards russians army forces
Sorry Bardock99 .... but the situation is far far more complicated than you think. Suffice it to say that the western media is only covering 1% of what is happening in Ukraine. As to what do Ukrainians themselves think .... the majority do not want the Russians in, but many are also disgusted with what the interim government in Kiev has and is doing. The only Ukrainians who want to "get some juice of this bastards russians army forces" are people that .... trust me on this one .... you will be embarrassed to be associated with.
Post a Comment