With The Ukraine Crisis Escalating, What Is Russian President Putin Saying And Doing

Russia's President Vladimir Putin delivers a speech during a session of the board of the FSB security service in Moscow April 7, 2014. Credit: Reuters/Mikhail Klimetyev/RIA Novosti/Kremlin

Putin Warns Against Letting West Use Anti-Kremlin Groups -- Reuters

(Reuters) - President Vladimir Putin told the FSB security service on Monday to ensure Russia did not follow what he said was Ukraine's example by letting the West use local groups for "destructive" purposes.

Putin's remarks signaled his lingering concern that the West could use non-governmental organizations to fuel dissent in Russia, despite a clampdown on groups funded from abroad since big protests against him in the winter of 2011-12.

He also urged the FSB, the main successor to the Soviet KGB security police, not to drop its guard against militant attacks following the Sochi Winter Olympics and to strengthen vigilance in the Arctic and to the south to prevent attacks on Russia.

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My Comment: The only public news that is coming out of the Russian President's office today is Putin's remarks on NGOs operating in Russia, FSB's efforts to stop spy operations, and domestic terrorism threats .... on Ukraine .... nothing much. But this has always been how Putin operates .... a crisis unfolds and he spends the next two or three days evaluating it .... and then acting upon it. On the crisis in eastern Ukraine, Putin has a lot of options on this one .... including the most drastic one which is to send some of the tens of thousands of soldiers that he has near the border into eastern Ukraine. But I am predicting that he will not do that (right now) .... the military option is the last option, and only to be used if the violence gets completely out of hand in Ukraine.

What I predict that he will do will be the following .... apply economic pressure, issue threats and warnings, and have his ministers publicly support the Russian community in eastern Ukraine. But the indicator that has always given a good sign on what Putin will do next is what the Russian parliament ends up doing .... if they pass laws and/or resolutions that support the independence movement in Ukraine .... it is then a guarantee that Putin (within a few days) will act promptly using the Russian parliament as his legal cover to the Russian people on why he is doing what he is doing.

Update: From RT a Reuters report: Russia called on Kiev to stop pointing the finger at Moscow after Ukraine's interior minister accused President Vladimir Putin of orchestrating "separatist disorder" in the east and southeast of the former Soviet republic.

"Stop nodding at Russia, blaming all the troubles of today's Ukraine on it," the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement on Monday. It reiterated Russia's call for constitutional reform that would give Ukraine's regions more powers.