A Commentary On Why Russia Will Not Intervene In Ukraine

Russia Will Not Risk Entanglement In Southeast Ukraine -- Vassily Kashin, Russia in Global Affairs

All the signs are that a military invasion of Ukraine’s restive eastern provinces by Russian forces is not on the cards. The likeliest scenario is that Moscow will allow Kiev to gradually claw back control of the east, though a prolonged crisis in relations with the West remains unavoidable.

It appears that the Russian leadership has taken a decision to refrain in principle from an open military intervention in southeast Ukraine. That much follows from the reported details of a telephone conversation between the Russian and U.S. defense ministers and the alleged subsequent withdrawal of Russian troops from the border with Ukraine. That, in turn, served as a starting point for a new and more active phase of the military operation against pro-autonomy gunmen by Ukrainian government forces.

As for covert Russian military participation in the events in the region, if there was such, it has been insignificant. The armed clashes of the past several days have made it clear that the pro-Russian rebels have only a very small core of people with real combat training.

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My Comment: I have been saying the same thing for the past month .... a Russian military intervention/invasion of Ukraine will probably succeed with a minimal loss of life .... but it is the international/economic/political consequences that is making Moscow hesitate. Ukraine is a large country with almost 50 million citizens. It is also a poor country that is heavily in debt, corrupt, and deeply divided along linguistic/sectarian lines. If Moscow invades Ukraine .... it will then become responsible for managing it's affairs .... a costly prospect even in the best situation. As a result .... I am still sticking with my original analysis .... Russia will stay out unless the country implodes into a sectarian civil war with heavy loss of life, mass destruction, and millions of refugees.