If Vietnam-China Showdown Turns Hot, Here’s How It Could Go Down -- Kyle Mizokami, War is Boring
Conflict between China and Vietnam is between a heavyweight and an underdog.
One of the oldest rivalries on the planet has flared up again, and it’s all because of where China placed an oil rig in the South China Sea.
The location of an oil rig might not seem like enough to start a war. But the two countries are in an aggressive standoff that—given the politics of the region and the shared history between the two countries—has the potential to turn violent.
But to understand what could happen next, it’s important to look at the history of conflict between China and Vietnam, and the military forces both sides have at their disposal.
Suffice to say, the latter is outmatched. But Hanoi is rapidly building up its military forces. Chinese and Vietnamese clashes are also not likely to end if one side backs down tomorrow. Here’s why.
Read more ....
My Comment: Summarizing .... Vietnam does not have the military resources to confront China .... especially in the South China Sea. But with Vietnam now spending monies on anti-access capabilities .... in a few years China will be facing a formidable foe.
6 comments:
I respectfully disagree with the article's major conclusion: that Vietnam will wait until it is better prepared with military equipment to confront China about the South China Sea dispute.
First, it is not clear that Vietnam will ever be stronger relative to China. While Vietnam is adding to their forces, so is China.
The timing of Vietnam's response to China's provocation with the oil rig will be governed by, I think, four factors.
First, the longer China has the drill and its escort ships in place, their location strengthens China's de facto position as sovereign over those waters. Vietnam need not respond tomorrow, but I think the response will be sooner rather than later. Weeks or months, not years.
Second, how can Vietnam effectively dispute China's claim to sovereignty over the South China Sea? The article says that Vietnam must deny China access. I disagree. To effectively dispute China's claim, Vietnam need only attack and sink the oil platform. That is an easier task to accomplish, and I think Vietnam has sufficient forces for such a limited mission. Sinking the rig would cost China $1 billion and humiliate them in the eyes of the world.
Third, Vietnam will calculate China's likely response. Sinking the rig creates its own sort of fait accompli: the rig is sunk. Suppose Vietnam sinks the platform and withdraws their Navy from the contested waters thereafter. To respond China must escalate, i.e. attack Vietnam itself. This forces China to come to Vietnam, where Vietnam's defenses are strongest and China's ability to project offensive power weakest. China will be forced to war against Vietnamese territory, which is better fro Vietnam's position as "victim" in public opinion. Moreover, the 1979 war showed that Vietnam is hard to invade; China can't assume an easy victory, or a victory at all.
Last, I think Vietnam will prefer to move when other fighting is under way and China is distracted by it. There are plenty of possibilities: Iran (oil supply), North Korea, China vs. Japan or any of its other neighbors, etc.
You listed some very good points Publius that are contrary to conventional wisdom .... and we all know how conventional wisdom usually ends up.
Publius brought out great points. However, sinking the oil rig will advantage Vietnam in many aspects of the conflict but will result in a big war and a lot of deaths. Who wants that? But, many times, you do what you have to do...
Publius,
I think you hit it right. But just how do you think they'll sink it? Also do you think that inflicting severe damage would get the same result as sinking?
I forgot to add, both countries (to use a sports analogy)have been good home teams, but poor road teams in a military sense. Of course all things change so who knows?
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