Ukraine's Election: Will Poroshenko Win? -- The Economist
THERE are two pressing questions when Ukraine goes to the polls on May 25th to elect a president. One is whether Petro Poroshenko (pictured), a billionaire who made his money in the chocolate business, will win in the first round. The other is how many people will be able to vote in Donetsk and Lugansk, two regions where armed separatists have declared independent republics.
Over the last few weeks nearly all opinions polls have given a big lead to Mr Poroshenko, who has served in governments of all stripes. In 2009-10 he was briefly foreign minister and in 2012 he was minster of trade under Viktor Yanukovych, the deposed president, who fled the country after the so-called Maidan Revolution, which Mr Poroshenko supported.
Mr Porosheko needs more than 50% of the votes to win in the first round. If he fails to get that a run-off must be held in three weeks. The person most likely to come second in the poll is Yulia Tymoshenko, the former prime minister, heroine of the Orange Revolution in 2004 and an oligarch, who used to be known as the gas princess thanks to her dealings with gas companies. Imprisoned for abuse of office in 2011, she was released from jail after Mr Yanukovych had fled Ukraine, but has not managed to recapture her former popularity. None of the other candidates on the list has a chance of election.
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My Comment: He will be the next President of Ukraine .... but will he be able to heal the deep divisions within the country as well as being able to come to some form of reconciliation with Russia .... on these issues I have my doubts. The separatist movement in eastern Ukraine now has it's own momentum .... and they are not interested in being part of a unified Ukraine. And while Russia is worried about the region spiraling into a low insurgency conflict .... they are not going to abandoned the Russian community in the eastern part of Ukraine .... this would be political suicide for Putin .... something that Putin will avoid at all costs.
There is also the problem of the economy. Ukraine is broke .... and all of that "promised aid" from the West has yet to really materialize. If he is not able to stabilize the economy within a year and meet expectations .... the blow-back against him will be severe, and we may be back to the same situation by next year.
4 comments:
I wonder who are the guys in front of the stage in uniforms?
You have a good eye James. They are not police or military .... so I can only assume they are security guards from a private security firm.
Or a contingent of Mussolini security detail look alikes.
You are probably onto something there James .... I asked a friend in Kiev what businesses are booming in Ukraine .... his response was "security".
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