A Holding Pattern In Iraq Today

Iraq Says Slows Islamist Rebel Advance, Regains Some Territory -- Reuters

(Reuters) - A Sunni Islamist offensive threatening to dismember Iraq seemed to slow on Saturday after days of lightning advances as government forces reported regaining territory in counter-attacks, easing pressure on Baghdad's Shi'ite-led government.

As Iraqi officials spoke of wresting back the initiative against Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant insurgents (ISIL), neighboring Shi'ite Iran held out the prospect of working with its longtime U.S. arch-enemy to help restore security in Iraq.

In a visit to Samarra, a major town in ISIL's sights 100 km (60 miles) north of Baghdad, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki vowed to defeat the rebels who caused international shock waves when they overran the Sunni northwest of Iraq earlier this week.

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My Comment: For all intents and purposes .... the Shiite dominated Iraqi government has lost the Sunni heartland. Iraqi government officials and security forces have been thrown out, and the Iraqi military is in too much disarray to mount any effective offensive to reclaim this lost territory .... even though they are boasting that they are preparing to launch an offensive. Iran is willing to help .... but even they must know that any Shiite advanced into the Sunni part of Iraq will be met with deadly force. The only outside force that can change the dynamics on the ground is the U.S., but President Obama was very blunt in his remarks yesterday .... US will not be ‘dragged back’ into conflict in Iraq, Obama warns (Irish Times).

My prediction on what will happen next .... ISIS will now consolidate it's gains, the Kurds will arm up (even more) to protect their part of Iraq from ISIS as well as taking care of the hundreds of thousands of refugees that are now within their territory. Iran will provide military intelligence/hardware/personnel assistance to the Iraq .... but this will be limited. The Iraq government is paralyzed on what to do next .... I expect this paralysis to continue for a few more weeks. And for the U.S. .... no one wants to get involved .... hence there is no clear plan on what to do next. I expect this U.S. lack of commitment on Iraq to continue for the next few days/weeks .... and in the end may become the de-facto official U.S. policy.

And in the long run .... Iraq is going to be split into three parts .... Kurds/Sunnis/Shiites .... and all three sides will be skirmishing amongst themselves in the months and years to come.

Update: The above video is very revealing on why the Iraqi army collapsed so quickly in Mosul and elsewhere.