What If Russia Invades Ukraine? -- Bennett Ramberg, National Interest
A look at the past could help Washington and its allies devise the proper response.
Despite the election of Petro Poroshenko as Ukraine’s president, the withdrawal of some Russian forces from Ukraine's border and efforts to move diplomacy along, the specter of a Kremlin military incursion remains as does the West’s befuddlement about what to do should an attack occur. In thinking through the problem, American decision makers would do well to examine how past presidents dealt with Moscow’s direct and proxy interventions during the Cold War and beyond.
History reveals four patterns. At one end, the United States relied on massive force in Korea and Vietnam. In response to Soviet suppression of revolts in East Germany (1953), Hungary (1956), and Czechoslovakia (1968), policy stopped at gawking and pouting. In Afghanistan (1979-89), Washington took a middle position joining economic and other sanctions with more significant military material assistance to resisters, while in Georgia (2008), it relied largely on diplomacy.
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My Comment: I personally have doubts that Russia will invade eastern Ukraine under the present conditions .... the costs would be too high and there is no guarantee that they would be able to stabilize the situation. But if there is an invasion .... it would be because the Ukrainian civil war would have escalated into an intolerable and unacceptable situation .... numerous casualties, massive numbers of refugees, and war atrocities. Under these circumstances a Russian invasion would be looked upon as a blessing .... and not as an occupation .... and this is why past scenarios may not apply to today's world and to the ongoing crisis in Ukraine.
4 comments:
Here is a series of interviews inside a refugee camp in Ukraine. In a nutshell the family members of separatists are sent away from fighting, further into Ukraine. They are on full government sustenance. Also they support male members, still fighting the same "horrible" government.
It is a far cry from the usual Eastern European so to say "standard for war refugees" where say, ethnic bosniaks would not go to, say, Serbia, as refugees.
The struggle in Ukraine is etnic-religious-ideological one, and as such, does not have much in common with constructs people (in the West) like to think about, such as socio-economic development, democracy/freedom, human rights etc.
This is why your analysis is mostly wrong.
http://censor.net.ua/video_news/290751/storonniki_dnr_otsijivayutsya_v_ukrainskih_lageryah_dlya_bejentsev_mnogie_mujchiny_ostalis_tam_my_ih
I guess I did not make myself clear .... I know that the struggle in Ukraine is an ethnic-religious-ideological one .... it is what I have been talking about since this civil war started. I would also add cultural/language/and political to the mix coupled with economic grievances.
As for the refugee crisis .... even within my own family many have now found themselves dislocated .... many to Russia, some within Ukraine itself, and now my closest cousin is trying to stay in Miami.
Thank you for the link to Censor.net (Цензор.НЕТ)
"Russian invasion would be looked upon as a blessing"
You are a joke ...this what you say to all the patriotics UKR that are dead, to all that want an independent UKR?
Canada shouldnt accept people like you living in their country
In a worse case scenario .... thousands killed, million plus refugees, an economic collapse, lawlessness and chaos .... yes .... if I was living in east Ukraine I would regard a Russian intervention as a blessing .... and if you were living in such a situation with your family .... so would you.
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