A Look At How The Ukraine Rebels Built Up Their Arsenal

How Rebels In Ukraine Built Up An Arsenal Capable Of Reaching The Skies -- CNN

(CNN) -- Under a blazing sun in early June, a group of pro-Russian rebels in eastern Ukraine were digging amid pine woods near the town of Krazny Liman.

Their grizzled commander was a bearded man in his 50s who would not tell us where he was from, but acknowledged that he wasn't local. He was proud to show off his unit's most prized possession -- a truck-mounted anti-aircraft unit that was Russian-made.

He told us the weapon had been seized from a Ukrainian base.

A few miles away, in the town of Kramatorsk, rebel fighters displayed two combat engineering tanks they said they had seized them from a local factory. Eastern Ukraine has long been a center of weapons production. They had parked one of the tanks next to the town square.

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My Comment: Since the shot-down of Malaysian Flight MH17 .... I have talked to people that I know on both sides of the conflict. My closest Russian contacts blame Ukraine for this disaster .... but they have also admitted to me that they are not really sure on what is in the arsenal of the pro-Russian rebels. Many of these groups operate independently, they are made up of local fighters, and almost all of them have some expertise in handling weapons .... even sophisticated air defense missile batteries. Could a militia group have been successful in seizing a base with a workable BUK missile system, decode it's launch codes and have it fixed up to be operational .... as my friend told me it would have been hard but not impossible. My Russian contacts are also telling me that the conflict has now entered a "no-holds bar" leveling of fighting in eastern Ukraine. Reported casualty rates are nowhere near what is the official number .... and the refugee crisis has expanded exponentially in just the past few days. No one in Moscow wants to send Russian troops into Ukraine .... it will be a conflict with no end point .... but Moscow is determined to defend it's border .... and as it was told me ... do not be surprised if in the next few days or weeks we will be reading reports of an even bigger Russian military buildup along the border.

On the Ukraine side .... I have a friendship (who is also has a distant cousin) with a senior Ukrainian deputy in the government. He (of course) is blaming Russian separatists and Moscow for Thursday's airplane tragedy .... but unlike the past where he was always confident and forceful in pushing his cause .... I heard for the first time a deep worry in his voice ... I guess he also knows that the conflict has now expanded into a very dangerous zone. He knows the region of eastern Ukraine as well as I do .... absent a political solution he easily foresees a situation where Ukrainian military forces will have to be deployed there on a permanent basis .... fighting what would essentially be a low grade insurgency war that will only bring a steady stream of body bags back to Kiev. He is also telling me that the casualty rates are far higher than what is being reported .... a deeply worrisome situation since he has two sons (they are 15 and 17) who may eventually be forced to fight this war 2 or 3 years from now. But his real deep worry right now is the economy. As he told me .... for all intents and purposes the economy will not (and cannot) grow as long as this conflict is continuing. Winter is also approaching .... and absent any agreement with Russia on natural gas supplies this will only guarantee a bad situation becoming worse. He also surprised me when he said that his wife .... someone who I have always remembered to be a fierce Ukrainian nationalists .... now wants to emigrate out of Ukraine.