Ukraine Army Still Far From Victory Over Rebels In East -- BBC
Ukrainian government troops have made significant gains in recent days, pushing pro-Russian rebels out of a string of towns in the east. The rebels have retreated to Donetsk from Sloviansk, for weeks a powerful symbol of their resistance to Kiev.
So are Kiev's forces winning the conflict? Alexander Golts, a military expert and deputy editor of the Russian online newspaper Yezhednevny Zhurnal, examines the new stand-off.
Ukrainian politicians say a fundamental turning point has been reached in the conflict. But the experience of similar conflicts elsewhere - with a regular army confronting paramilitary units - provides no basis for such claims.
Nobody has succeeded in defeating paramilitaries who are embedded in a city, virtually turning its residents into a human shield - the Americans did not win such a conflict in Mogadishu, Somalia, nor did the Russians win in the Chechen capital Grozny.
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My Comment: Kiev has been given the "green light" from the West to do what it takes to destroy the rebellion .... and I do not expect Ukraine President Poroshenko to give it up on this opportunity. He will do what it takes, and even though he has declared that the cities will not be bombed .... the facts on the ground have proven (and are proving) otherwise. I expect the next few weeks will be one where the Ukraine military will build up it's forces around Donestk and Luhansk. A siege will be implemented, and targeted (and indiscriminate) bombings will be ordered. Pro-Russian separatists will instigate hit and run operations, and I do expect heavy casualties ... on both sides. By the end of August and/or September the Ukraine army will be ordered into Donetsk (not Luhansk which is too close to the Russian border) .... resulting in massive destruction and high casualty rates. I expect a few hundred thousand refugees .... and almost all of them will flee into Russia. Charges of ethnic cleansing will be declared .... but many in the West will just shrug their shoulders. Putin will be under enormous pressure to intervene .... and many are unsure on what he will do next .... but if the worse case scenario plays out .... Western sanctions be damned .... I will not be surprised if Putin orders the Russian army in.
2 comments:
1.
Will the civilians in Donetsk help the Ukrainian soldiers during the siege and give them information about where the seperatists are posisioned under the siege?
2.
If Putin send the army in will he just take Donetsk and Lugans or the whole country? If he just takes Donetesk and lugansk NATO can deploy a rocket shield in Kiev to limit Russias nuclear capability.
3.
Can the pro-Russians stand their ground in a siege or will they flee like they did in Sloviansk?
4.
Can a Russians invation be avoided or is it a de-facto if Kiev doesent compromise with the pro-Russian?
1) Some civilians will help the Ukraine army and militias .... but I would bet that most will not.
2) I do not see Russia taking Ukraine .... and if they do invade eastern Ukraine it will be because of the "worst case" scenario that I have outlined.
The problem is that Ukraine is broke and the eastern part of the country has been/or is being destroyed. It will take tens of billions of dollars to repair everything .... money that no one in Europe or in Russia is or will be willing to spend. If Russia moves into eastern Ukraine they will then be responsible .... a scenario that I know is not very appetizing for Moscow.
3) The Ukraine army has the tanks, the manpower, air force, etc. .... they should win. But it will be very destructive and casualties high. And the big reason why is that for most of these rebel fighters .... they have nowhere else to go. This will be their last stand.
4) The problem in Ukraine is a political one .... both sides need to talk. But it is not going to happen (right now) because both sides do not see eye to eye. Eastern Ukraine wants autonomy and some form of independence .... Kiev is not interested in any of these proposals.
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