A Chinese Type 071 amphibious assault ship. Via Chinese Internet
China Thinks It Can Defeat America In Battle -- David Axe, The Week/War is Boring
But it overlooks one decisive factor.
The bad news first. The People's Republic of China now believes it can successfully prevent the United States from intervening in the event of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan or some other military assault by Beijing.
Now the good news. China is wrong — and for one major reason. It apparently disregards the decisive power of America's nuclear-powered submarines.
Moreover, for economic and demographic reasons Beijing has a narrow historical window in which to use its military to alter the world's power structure. If China doesn't make a major military move in the next couple decades, it probably never will.
The U.S. Navy's submarines — the unsung main defenders of the current world order — must hold the line against China for another 20 years. After that, America can declare a sort of quiet victory in the increasingly chilly Cold War with China.
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My Comment: This story was actually posted a few months back .... I guess it is making the rounds again. As to the Chinese belief that China could actually defeat America in battle .... I first noticed this trend on my last trip to China about two years ago. I remembered posting in this blog my incredulity that such an idea was actually being accepted by many in China's political elite .... but that is a belief that is growing.
As to the U.S. submarine advantage .... it is true that they can (and probably will) sink a major part of the Chinese naval fleet in any shooting war .... but I doubt that the Chinese will use their forces in such a matter. The Chinese will use air assets to move their forces, and will try their best to avoid this submarine threat ... unless of course we read reports in a year or two on the Chinese investing heavily in anti-submarine hardware.
3 comments:
This is bad news, hope china dosent get stupin enouth to start a giant war in Asia.
1.
How wil the new borders on the Chinese maps influence their realtionship to Vietnam, Japan, India and the Philipins.
2.
How is the oil rig conflict betwen China and Vietnam going? Have the Vietnamese tried to regain "face" yet?
3.
How "agressive" is China on exspanding its border?
If China wants to invade Taiwan without America getting involved, now's the time to do it.
The current Obama administration is weak and the odds are in favour of the Administration not wanting to get involved, but rather shout at China from a safe distance.
It is really down to the administration and their political willpower. America is declining, both financially and militarily. Some hate to admit it even when it's obvious. Right now, with a weak administration and a weak economy and a dying military (that still packs a punch though) China may be onto something...
What concerns me is that China is in turmoil right now .... something that the western media is not properly reporting. The Chinese economy is suffering from a credit crunch. Political leaders are being purged .... and old friendships and arrangements are being shattered. President Xi is making his presence felt on every level in China ... and there is now blow-back on his reforms. In such a turbulent environment .... anything can happen .... and that is a big red flag.
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