Between 8 and 9 this morning saw insurgents leaving #Slavyansk via #Kramatorsk They were saying, "the city's fallen, everyone's getting out"
— Tanya Lokshina (@TanyaLokshina) July 5, 2014
Ukraine Leader Poroshenko Orders Flag Raised In Separatist Stronghold Slovyansk -- Deitsche Welle
Pro-Russian separatists have reportedly left the eastern Ukrainian city of Slovyansk, which they had controlled since April. This prompted President Petro Poroshenko to order the Ukrainian flag be raised over the city.
Ukrainian officials claimed victory over pro-Russian separatists in the city of Slovyansk on Saturday. According to them, government troops have taken control of the city, which has been a stronghold for the separatists for the past three months.
"This morning, intelligence reported that Girkin [Igor Strelkov, a separatist leader] and a substantial part of the rebels had fled Slovyansk," Ukraine's Interior Minister Arsen Avakov said in a Facebook post, adding that the separatists had gone to a nearby town following sustained fire from Ukrainian security forces.
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My Comment: The outcome was never in doubt. After 3 months of being under siege and under constant attack .... and facing a massive Ukrainian military buildup that would have destroyed this city of 130,000 .... the rebels have either melted into the civilian population and/or fled into the woods. Unfortunately .... the bitterness of what has happened in the past three months is not going to go away. Most of the people in this region now feel that they are under occupation, and if the history of this region is any indication .... expect a low level insurgency and a constant Ukrainian military presence to keep the peace but will only aggravate this part of the country.
The next target for the Ukraine military will be either Luhansk or the area around the city of Donetsk and it's one million inhabitants. This is not going to be an easy campaign for the Ukraine military .... but I expect Poroshenko to not change in his tactics .... he will talk peace but he will order his military units and the militias that support him to continue the campaign. And while I do expect him to eventually win .... absent any meaningful compromise and accommodation .... this part of the country will embark on a low level insurgency that will last for years. Think of Ireland and the decades of rebellion that occurred there ....with the difference being that in this part of Ukraine we have more people and a larger territory .... and an ally for the separatists in the name of Russia next door.
This is going to be a long hot summer.
2 comments:
1.
Will Russia send more millitary suport and checehns over the borders to suport the pro-Russians?
2.
Why are Russia sending exspensive military material to the pro-Russians if they are losing the battle?
3.
Yesterday i read that Russian ships shelled an Ukrainian radar station, can this lead to an war between Russia and Ukraine?
4.
The new defence minister said that he should held a victory parade on Sevastapol. How is he going to get Crimea back? With military power or eceonomic sanctions? I think he wil net get Crimea back since Russia wil not give up on it.
5.
Stil if the pro-Russians are losing can they still take over Kharkov or is the city stable and will stay so?
6.
Can the Ukraine military reclaim sutch big cities like Donetsk and Lugans without masive civilian causalties that can lead to a Russian invation?
7.
Does the Ukraine military have enough food, amunition and men for retaking the east?
8.
What do you mean when you say low level insurgency? Minor teror actions like bulding getting blown up or on a mutch minor scale?
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Thats my questions today. I think the conflict is nearing its end, the only thing i cant understand is why Russia is supporting the rebels if they know they are going to lose? Russia have sent exspensive tanks and GRAD missiled isent it just money out the window?
1) The Chechen influence and numbers are overblown. Most of the rebels are locals.
2) Russia has send equipment and aid .... but this is also overblown. Besides .... there are enough weapons in eastern Ukraine that any weapons from Russia will make a minimal impact.
3) Aside from one Ukrainian news report and some social media talk .... I an skeptical of this report. If there was an attack .... every western news organization will be covering it.
4) Crimea is not going to go back to Ukraine. Not in my lifetime.
5) Kharkiv will not fall into rebel control .... nor will it be stable. It is a city that is deeply divided and will remain so for a very long time.
6) A military attack on Donetsk and Kuhansk will result in thousands of deaths and injuries .... and the destruction of Ukraine's industrial heartland. But will Russia get involved .... not directly.
7) Ukraine military is short on everything. That is why it took them 3 months to take Slovyansk when it should have taken them a few days.
8) Think Northern Ireland for the past hundred years. Killings, intimidation, the odd bomb, a sniper, sabotage, a small scale coordinated attack on a small Ukraine military post, etc..
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