U.S. Strategic Interests In The South China Sea

America’s Dangerous $5 Trillion Dollar Bet in the South China Sea -- Harry J. Kazianis, National Interest

Over $5 Trillion dollars of goods move across the hotly disputed waters of the South China Sea on an annual basis—and China seems focused on turning the area into its special sphere of influence.

Tensions have been steadily rising over the last few years in what Robert D. Kaplan has dubbed Asia’s Cauldron, and so far Washington has been unable to find the magic formula to get Beijing to back off. A new U.S. plan reported by the Financial Times will do little to change Beijing’s calculus. In fact, it could make matters far worse.

This supposed new strategy will focus heavily on surveillance flights and what might be dubbed a simple “shaming” strategy. FT reports that Washington will step up its use of surveillance assets in the area which “could be coupled with a greater willingness to publicize images of videos of Chinese maritime activity.” It goes on to note, “some US officials believe the Chinese might be given pause for thought if images of their vessels harassing Vietnamese or Filipino fisherman were to be broadcast.”

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My Comment:  China's economy is dependent just like the rest of Asia's (and the world for that matter) on the free flow of goods. Any disruption to that flow will mean economic and political trouble for everyone. But even with this "threat" .... everyone is in a rush to pursue an agenda that will only increase tensions. In the end .... I do expect China to back down .... but from now to then expect a rocky situation to get worse.