Why Ukraine Can't Win An All-Out Military Victory, And Shouldn't Try -- Carol Matlack, Bloomberg Businessweek
Suddenly, Ukraine’s army is winning. Over the weekend, Kiev’s troops recaptured several cities in the eastern Donetsk region, sending pro-Russian rebels fleeing to strongholds further east. Now, President Petro Poroshenko is planning a “complete blockade” of the region’s two other main cities, Donetsk and Luhansk, according to a Ukrainian television report that quoted the deputy head of the country’s National Defense and Security Council.
That’s a striking turnabout from just a few weeks ago, when Ukraine’s forces seemed ragtag and reluctant to fight. But it doesn’t mean that a military victory is likely, or desirable.
The cities retaken over the past few days were relatively small (the largest, Kramatorsk, has a population of 165,000) and lightly defended. Donetsk, the region’s biggest city with some 1 million inhabitants, is still in the hands of rebels. Rooting them out would be a long and brutal process. “They would have to do it street by street,” says Mark Galeotti, a professor of global affairs at New York University. “The cost in body bags would be high.”
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My Comment: The above argument is now moot .... Ukraine President Petro Poroshenko has ruled out a cease-fire, and he has ordered Ukraine military forces to move in and "destroy rebel bases". This move is not surprising .... and what will happen next is predictable. The Ukraine military does not have the means to storm a city like Donetsk .... but what they can do is to surround it and to limit (if not cut off) essential services like electricity and water. The Ukraine has also been using artillery and mortars on civilian population centers .... I expect this tactic to continue on the larger cities of Donetsk and Luhansk. The siege and final battle for Donetsk will be bloody and incredibly destructive. And while I do not expect any opposition or condemnation from the West on what the Ukraine military and it's militias are doing in eastern Ukraine .... I do know that reaction in Russia and in the Russian regions of Ukraine will be overwhelmingly hostile. The blow-back is going to be serious .... and I doubt that Ukraine President Petro Poroshenko has worked out what those consequences will be.
6 comments:
1.
Does the Ukrainian millitary have the strenght to storm Lugansk?
2.
I have read that when the pro-Russians retreated from Sloviansk they lost many weapons and all of their tanks, will this have a effect on the defense of the pro-Russian terretories or have the pro-Russians many weapons in Lugansk and Donetsk that can supplement for those that were lost in the evacuation of Sloviansk?
3.
If Kiev forces decides to bomb Donetsk and Lugansk wil this lead to more of the civilians takin up arms to fight for the pro-Russians?
4.
What hostile responses can Poroshenko exspect from Russia, the civilian population in pro-Russian controled areras+
5.
How is the Ukrainian economy? Any risk of colapse? Are the EU trading agreement helping?
6.
The gas that was cut from Russia what effect wil this have in the winter and the reserves are empty?
7.
If Ukraine liberate Donetsk and Lugansk or the pro-Russians just give up wil the civians continue to fight for independence or is it not important? Can Ukraine stay whole or wil the civil population in the east be independent?
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Thats my questions for today. Thouth this conflict was over, i thouth Kiev military was strong enough to storm Donetsk but i am wrong. Hope this get resolved peacfully and that east Ukraine get its independence.
1) Lugansk is the next target. But the Ukraine military does not have the means to storm Lugansk for now. I expect a siege and continuing artillery strikes for the foreseeable future.
2)There is now so many weapons in eastern Ukraine that I doubt that losing some here or there will make a difference.
3) People are already angry ... I do not see this changing into something worse.
4) The weakness in Ukraine is the economy .... this is what Russia will target. The civilian population in eastern Ukraine is already hostile to Kiev .... this will not change.
5)The Ukraine economy is in the "toilet". Western aid is small and sporadic. Many young people are unemployed right now.
6) the gas crisis will start to hit Ukraine in October. This is going to hurt.
7) I see a northern Ireland type of situation in eastern Ukraine. The rebel movement is not going to go away until Kiev starts to negotiate some form of autonomy with eastern Ukraine .... which I doubt they will.
This is pretty good on Putin's options and actions.
http://pjmedia.com/richardfernandez/2014/07/07/putin-as-goldilocks/
Thanks James, that was a god article.
Wonder if Putin backs off or invade? He cant stay in the middle ground forever.
Thanks for the link James.
I am a huge huge huge fan of Richard Fernandez. He and Victor Davis Hanson are always must reads for me at PJ Media.
Sorry I thibk the Fernandez article is partiaan Obama bashing and not very insightful. Who is to say if a new US president can do anytjing different from Obama? The financial and political challenges which have weakened US power are not zimply a matter of will or resolve. A new president alone will be unlikley to fix that. Also does Rogriguez or anyone else thknk Rasmussen would say anything other than that NATO needs more money? Why would he talk his organization out of its raision detre? Finally, does Fernandez or anyone else think the West is going to war if Russia invades? I think not.
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