WNU Editor: For the next few days/weeks the debate will center on who launched a missile that shot down a Malaysian airplane that was flying high over Ukraine? And while all sides agreed that it was brought down by a Buk antiaircraft missile .... with the exception of one pro-Russian rebel commander who has taken claim (and then withdrew it) of shooting down this plane .... everyone is now on the same page denying any responsibility and blaming the other side for this tragedy.
What's my take ....
I have been told that all three sides in this conflict .... Russian, pro-Russian rebels, and Ukrainian forces .... have Buk anti-aircraft systems in their arsenal, and all three know how to use them. I have also been told that reports of pro-Russian rebels having the Buk anti-aircraft missile system are not true .... and that this is a disinformation campaign from Ukraine.
So who is right?
My guess is that the pro-Russian rebels do have these missile systems in their arsenal. They have been incredibly successful in over-running Ukrainian military bases .... and they have seized many of their weapons .... including (probably) the Buk anti-aircraft missile system. The problem is that it is difficult to confirm any of these reports. The pro-Russian rebel movement in eastern Ukraine is deeply fractured .... many of them act independently. And while their leaders may deny involvement in today's tragedy .... in reality they do not know what all the different militias are doing .... or what they are capable of doing. What also hurt's their denial of responsibility is that they have issued repeated warnings that they would shoot down any Ukrainian jet in the region .... and may have shot down Malaysian Airlines Flight MH17 thinking that it was just another Ukrainian transport plane. They have done this before .... including shooting down a Ukrainian cargo plane at over 6,000 meters above the ground a few weeks ago.
The Ukraine military must also be suspected. Earlier today a Ukrainian jet fighter was shot down by a Russia fighter .... and some are now speculating if this resulted in a change in the rules of engagement for Ukrainian forces in the region .... i.e. shoot down any plane that is not Ukrainian. With these new rules .... and knowing that there are Russian fighters in the sky .... the Ukrainian army could have easily then shot at the plane thinking it was a Russian fighter and/or Russian intelligence flying over their territory. It should also be noted that many of these soldiers and their militia allies are not the most reliable fighters in the field .... many of them have already been accused of committing war crimes by deliberately launching artillery and missile strikes on civilian targets .... what's an airplane if it is OK to bomb civilian cities..
Summarizing .... this tragedy screams for an independent investigation .... but eastern Ukraine is now in the middle of a brutal civil war where towns and cities are being bombed and scores of civilians are now being killed on a daily basis .... sending in independent investigators to investigate, analyze, and bring back evidence is going to be next to impossible. And while I do believe that one day we will learn who was responsible for shooting down Malaysian Airlines Flight MH17 .... sadly .... we are not going to know the truth until this civil war is over.
2 comments:
Very sad news indeed....
1.
How will this influence the civil war?
2.
Can this have consequences for the western-Russian relationship?
3.
I have read that the pro-Russians have killed many Ukrainian soldiers in the last days. figures from around 1000 to 4000 causalities on the Ukrainian side. Are the pro Russians effectively fending of Kiev or are they still losing the war?
4.
I have also seen reports of Russian artillery firing from the border against Ukrainian forces are Russia and Ukraine unofficially at war?
5.
With this flight incident will this lead to EU and the US backing Poroshenko more?
6.
Will Russia stop supporting the pro-Russians because of this incident or have nothing changed and Putin will still continue to push for his goals? (Whatever they are, i haven't a clue on what he want)
1) On the ground .... nothing is going to change. But for the West .... there is no longer any doubt that Ukraine is now in a brutal civil war.
2) U.S. policy on Ukraine is a mess .... the more that they get involved ... the more the bloodshed increases. The EU is going to take a step back .... they now realize that this situation is spiraling out of control.
3) I read a Ukrainian government report that announced a dozen soldiers killed today .... 30 wounded. But my Ukrainian government source tells me that the numbers are much higher. Snipers, IEDs, attack on small outposts .... this is now happening on a daily basis and in numerous locations. The Ukrainian army may seize a city like Slovyansk .... but when they leave the city their convoys are bombed.
4) I have also seen the reports of Russian artillery firing from their side of the border against Ukrainian forces. Last weeks Ukrainian airstrike on a Russian village has raised the alert level to "high" in this region. Moscow itself has warned that they will launch targeted artillery strikes if the fighting in Ukraine crosses into their side of the border.
5) US policy on Ukraine is a mess .... but I expect the EU to push Poroshenko to announce another ceasefire or to push for peace talks. But that is too late now .... and I do not see Poroshenko as a man who will change his policies on what to do in eastern Ukraine.
6) This may actually push Russia to increase support for the rebels. They want a negotiated end to this conflict .... but I do not think it is going to happen. As I had mentioned many times before .... the people in this region are very independent ... they do not listen to Kiev or to Moscow .... they have always acted independently and on what they think is best for themselves. For now .... they want to be independent from Ukraine, and they are determined to get it.
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