Why China and Japan Could Fight

A Great War In The East China Sea: Why China and Japan Could Fight -- Hugh White, National Interest

How the unthinkable could happen in Asia—and the ramifications for America.

Few people believe that either China or Japan would deliberately start a war in the East China Sea. Most analysts assume that an armed clash could only occur through accident, misunderstanding or unauthorized acts by junior officers acting without, or even against, orders. These are not remote possibilities, of course. They already make the risk of war dangerously high. But we underestimate how high that risk really is if we think this is the only way a war could begin. I think there is a real possibility that fighting might be started deliberately by one side or the other, and unless we understand the circumstances that might prompt that step from either side, we will not be able to take steps to avoid them.

First, we must be clear that neither side is at all likely to deliberately start a fight over possession of the disputed islands themselves, or even of the resources that might lie around them. They are not worth a military conflict to anyone. But the dispute has never been about territory. The islands are simply tokens in a contest to define the roles and status of Asia’s great powers over coming decades. These are issues over which states might well choose to start a war.

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My Comment: This is one of those nightmare scenarios that no one wants to contemplate .... unfortunately .... this is exactly what is being calculated right now in both Beijing and Tokyo.