My worst fears are now being realized.
Since the beginning of the revolution in Ukraine .... starting with the overthrow of former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych .... I have always stated in this blog that my worst fears was a situation in which Ukrainian nationalists would impose an environment that would make the Russian dominated eastern part of the country rise in a revolt that would culminate into a civil war and a Russian intervention. Sadly .... 6 months later .... this is exactly what is happening today.
The situation in eastern Ukraine is now one of anarchy, indiscriminate bombings and killings, a massive refugee crisis, devastation, and casualty rates going through the roof. As I have said before .... if there was going to be a Russian military intervention .... it would be done if this was the environment in eastern Ukraine. Well .... that is the environment today .... and absent any real moves to find a negotiated settlement .... it looks like Putin made the decision a few weeks ago to intervene.
With hindsight .... the change a few weeks ago in the political and military leadership of the rebel movement to that of hardcore regional military commanders was the first sign that the war was going to enter a new phase. It also appears that the ten Russian paratroopers that were captured by Ukrainian forces on Monday were actually doing reconnaissance on the border .... and while they may not have known what was their exact mission (to them it was just a patrol).... their commanders wanted to know if Ukrainian forces were present (which they were). The Monday attack of a Ukrainian border post by Russia attack helicopters was another red flag that something was going to happen .... this was the first time that Russian air support was used in such a manner, but equally important was the target .... from this border post there you could tell if Russian forces were moving into Ukraine. The meeting in Minsk between Putin and Poroshenko on Tuesday was .... as I had said in a commentary on Tuesday .... "weird". The body language was all wrong. The public discussions were on generalities. Nothing really substantive was being talked about. Both leaders had a private 2 hour discussion late at night .... this is in itself was a surprise and unprecedented. And after that discussion .... Putin was and has not been seen publicly .... another sign that something was up.
U.S./NATO are saying that there are now 1,000 Russian soldiers in Ukraine. Ukrainian rebel leaders are saying that 4,000 Russian soldiers/volunteers are now helping rebel forces in their fight against the Ukrainian military. Ukraine military sources are claiming that 15,000 Russian soldiers have entered the country. Either way .... the dynamics on the ground have changed. As to what are the Russian/rebel military objectives .... it appears that their forces are aiming to seize the south-eastern cities of Mariupol and Novoazovsk .... and maybe driving to Crimea itself thereby opening a land route to the peninsula. For the Ukrainian military .... this is now an unsustainable military operation. They are operating in a region where many of the locals are hostile towards them, they are being cut off from re-supplies, and they are probably facing a fight (if not in it already) against Russian special forces. If Russian air support gets involved .... this could become a rout.
The next few days are going to be critical. We are still not sure on what are the ultimate objectives for Russia in this incursion/invasion .... is it to give some support to the rebel movement so that they are not defeated? Is it to pressure Ukrainian Poroshenko to the negotiating table to discuss and implement a ceasefire and agreement with the Russian rebel movement in the east? Is it to seize and annex eastern Ukraine? All options are now on the table .... and the civil war has now escalated into something far more bigger and dangerous.
On a personal note .... I cannot express how angry and depressed I am of this situation. I warned about this in February/March to my "friends" in the Russian foreign office in Moscow and to two parliamentary deputies that I know in Kiev .... but no one took my concerns seriously. Impossible some said .... I have been living too long in the West is what others said. Sighhh .... and today .... I hear nothing but silence from them when I said "I told you so" this morning.
The end result (in my eyes) is now predictable. Massive destruction. Massive numbers of casualties. Refugee numbers reaching 2 million. A bitterness between Ukrainians and Russians that will last a few generations. Political upheavals and unrest in Ukraine. A poisoning in Russian -Western relations. More sanctions. And a NATO - Russian arms buildup.
12 comments:
Thank you for your analysis i concur. I hope they will get to a agreement but the chance of that is at a all time low.
1.
And what will a Russia NATO arms buildup mean?
Can we get a new form of a cold war?
2.
Will Russia's economy survive? many of my friends mean that Russia will have huge problems with their economy and that it has already got into resection.
3.
Will Putin continue to control Russia or will this war lead to him not getting re elected?
WNU Editor, this is Putin's self-fulfilling curse coming true.
Several times he saw he was losing the game and he choose to raise the stakes rather than accept defeat and cut his losses. Are his opponents to be blamed for his desperate self-destructive tactics? What was their alternative - give up and do as he says? Would appeasement have worked, or only increased his appetite?
Europe and USA now fear and distrust Putin, the East exploits him for gain. He has no real friends, only dependents, who are more a liability than an asset, because a lot of them depend on his constant support to stay in power and can offer little in return. The biggest short-term loser from this invasion is Ukraine, but the big long-term loser is Russia. Putin wasted its future on a pipe-dream of quick restoration of the Russian Empire. And Ukraine, even if it loses territory, will gain its freedom and the right to choose its future, not have a new Soviet-style vassalage imposed on it.
Pavlik .... I have always said that for the crisis in Ukraine to end .... it had to be resolved by the Ukrainians. No more now. Russia's intervention has changed the dynamics on the ground .... and with it any possibility of a Ukrainian solution to a Ukrainian crisis. Russia is now involved .... and directly so. Any peace negotiations in eastern Ukraine will now involve Moscow .... which probably means that no solution will be found.
WNU Editor, you know that Ukrainians would have never been left alone to resolve their issues. At least not buy Kremlin. Trouble started by Putin's interference in Ukrainian affairs by offering that 15 bln bribe to make Ukraine give up on its EU membership plans. Then Yanukovich's excessive use of force no doubt encouraged by Putin, then the "green men" in Crimea ... When was Ukraine left by Putin to resolve its own issues? Never. That option was never really an option, just wishful thinking. So the choice was hard, but simple - risk and fight, or give up and let Putin do what he wants. And Putin acted very arrogantly in the beginning, hoping to intimidate his opponents and make them give up the fight without even trying. But Ukraine chose to fight, and despite the high cost will come out victorious at the end. And Europe, USA and NATO may not put boots on the ground, but they know well, that they cannot afford to let Putin win, so they will provide support to Ukraine and will destroy Putin economically.
Pavlik .... Ukrainian politics has been in turmoil long before Putin ever showed up in Moscow. What we are seeing is history unfolding .... a history where Ukrainian - Russian relations within Ukraine itself has never been good. And while the Soviet Communists did use mass murder and a rigid police state to keep the old animosities at bay .... the fall of the Soviet Union changed all of that.
Since independence Ukraine has never achieved what it had the potential of becoming ... corruption, a hostile business environment, and problems with the east (even 25 years ago) .... it was one of the many reasons why I choose not to live in Odessa (my favorite city in eastern Europe) but apply and get my Canadian citizenship.
Oh, now I see what you were saying. It's quite absurd when two groups of people, which at least to an outsider are very similar, have such a hard time living together. Judging from the experience of Bulgarians, Serbians, Croats, Macedonians and other people, who gave meaning to the term "Balkanization", the interference of powerful imperial ambitions is usually at the root of such fratricidal hostilities, which can last for centuries and do massive damage without anyone involved actually gaining anything from them.
Pavlik .... You are right .... especially on the absurdity of it all. It is only when you are "outside of the box" that you can see it. Northern Ireland, Yugoslavia, Syria .... everyone looks the same .... but they are not. And these are always the most gruesome conflicts.
As for Ukraine .... I cannot describe how incredibly beautiful some parts of that country is .... especially on the Black Sea. But the people who live there .... they just cannot escape their history.
Well WNU,
Like I said things were going to get alot more interesting this week. I like what you saw in the "meeting" picture. Go back and look again at Poroshenko's left breast under his suit jacket and tell me what you think you see? It's not all that important, but... Looks like the the separatists were losing more than Putin could tolerate in whatever calculations he's made. Now it looks like they'll try to defeat and drive back the Ukrainian military at least into the west, perhaps close the Kiev and force Poroshenko back to the table with a more accepting mood than he had at the last meeting.
I was wondering where James was? Sorry .... but I am always like that when I do not hear from someone after a while.
Yup .... things have gotten interesting. The decision to position Russian forces on the border was made 6-8 weeks ago .... the decision to go in was made a few hours after Putin had finished his late night meeting with Poroshenko (he clearly was not happy with the meeting). So what is my take .... Putin is now putting pressure on Poroshenko to negotiate .... and if I was an aide to Poroshenko .... I will tell him that he now has two choices .... negotiate and get the best deal for Ukraine, or be prepared for a long drawn out war of attrition that will bleed Ukraine for years.
As to the picture .... he definitely has something under his jacket .... my first thought was a cell phone (too small) or beeper. Then I though "bullet proof vest". I now I wonder if it is a girdle. I would love to know what you think.
On a side note .... it is amazing how my "friends" in Moscow have gotten super-duper serious in just 48 hours. In the past when I talk to them it is always "how are you doing, when you are coming over, are you looking for a job?" .... but not today. Among my former colleagues I have the reputation of being the serious one who is always warning of doom and gloom .... so it is strange from my point of view to see them act this way. On a positive note .... at least they answered my phone calls and hear my "I told you so". :)
On the small thing, I think it's a pack of cigarettes. On the second. I had not thought of a girdle, but that's not bad. Body armor was my first thought, but it's kind of hard to see the tops of his shoulders to confirm it (and he is a portly guy). If he is wearing armor he's worried about somebody, his own people, Putin, any old crack pot, who knows. I know you guys in the East smoke alot more than we do now, but if he does smoke and wear armor he's nervous and under a lot of pressure ( I can hear the collective Duhs now), and sure as hell didn't want to be at that meeting.
Yeah, I'm around just haven't had a smart thought in a awhile.
I had to laugh remembering the Obama people chiding Putin for being so "19th century" in his actions.Well apparently there is a lot of that 19th, 18th, 17th, heck some 8,9, and 10th century stuff going on. Enough to cause tons of "concern" in DC, blizzards of "Who are these people and why are they doing these things?" articles in the MSM, and get everyone running around in circles screaming we need to get a plan!
I can see now reporters, spokespeople, and Public Information Officers making sure they've got Roget's handy. After all if you're dismayed, concerned, shocked, disturbed, aghast, and unsettled now, you'd better keep that reference handy cause you're going to need a ton of new adjectives.
Russian cigarettes .... yechhh .... and not the fancy stuff that you Americans smoke. Probably one the the top 3 reasons why Russians have a short life span (vodka and killing each other over stupid arguments are the other two reasons).
As you can tell .... I do not smoke. My father's two pack a day habit thought me on why I should never smoke the stuff.
Adjectives .... fortunately .... I have yet to be short on adjectives when it comes to describing the "foibles" of the world. Then again ... when one looks at where we are heading .... you begin to wonder.
Post a Comment