ISIS Gains First Ground in Lebanon -- The Wire
Militants associated with the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) captured the Lebanese city of Arsal in fighting that began on Friday and continued Monday.
According to The Telegraph, a Syrian rebel group set up check-points in the border city but have not yet declared the area as part of the caliphate. In addition to 40,000 residents, there are roughly 120,000 refugees living in Arsal.
The conflict broke out after the Lebanese Army arrested Abu Ahmad al-Jumaa, a former commander in the Free Syrian Army who later declared allegiance to ISIS. Officials said they arrested Jumaa because he planned to attack an army outpost.
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More News On The Islamic State Military Campaign In Lebanon
Ceasefire extended in Lebanon's Arsal -- Al Jazeera
Deal reached: ISIS to leave Arsal, soldiers to be released -- Daily Star
Lebanon's army clashes with ISIS militants in Arsal as ceasefire efforts continue -- Al Bawaba
Lebanese army surrounds border town, evacuates refugees -- Reuters
ISIS Invades Lebanon, Hezbollah Steps Back -- Arutz Sheva
Al-Qaeda offshoot Islamic State expands its reach into Lebanon as tensions rise -- Washington Post
Syria's civil war is threatening Lebanon -- Deutsceh Welle
Hezbollah preparing for Arsal conflict intervention: source -- Asharq Al-Awsat
Arsal clashes start of mini-civil war -- Robert Fisk, Daily Star
Update: The Saudis are getting nervous .... King Abdullah pledges $1 bn to Lebanese army: Hariri (Asharq Al-Awsat)
2 comments:
Will Obama's half brothers be as welcomed in Riyadh as in years past if Obama dithers?
It was reported that the rebel's commander of the town of Arsal (Abu Hasan al-Homsi) was killed just yesterday. Early today SAA crossed the border and made ambush operation on the ISIS forces.
Heavy figting going in the town of Arsal, and as I seen on some video footages, that the Lebanese Army using heavy assets on the fightings (tanks, IFVs and arty). So I expect that the Army will push the rebels (I just call them rebels now instead of ISIS, because they are from mixed groups) and the cost not matter. The casaualty ratio show the rebels has way higher losses, plus the loss of the main commander will cause a big blowback on the morale and organisation.
But what will happen after the liberation of Arsal, I don't know. Rebels wanted to make a deal with the Libanese goverment about that they will leave the town in the case if their leader being released, but as we know this not happened. But this statement was important because ( in the case if the rebels not just lied ) than they could go to a "safe" place somewhere else, which should to be in Libanon. But I not realy found any urbanised areas which could fit for the rebels to re-group/organise or hide, because the Army can and will find them.
The estimilated amount of rebel fighters in the area is 3000 (probably in two bigger group, one is at Arsal and another on the Al_Zabadani border areas), and if the SAA claims are true they killed more than 1000 fighter (included the recent fightings in Arsal) during the last 1,5 month. So it's seems the remained rebel forces are in a very bad situation and with the fall of Arsal I expect an almost total destruction of the local rebels. Some will remain, probably many fighter from ISIS will go to the mountains but the only a lower level COIN style operation area will remain in the Qalamun, but it will last for a long time, with probvably low intensity.
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