Tuesday, August 12, 2014

U.S. Senator: The Ukraine Civil War Can End In One Week Or It Can End With A Russian Invasion



US Senator: Standoff in Eastern Ukraine To Be Settled 'Within Another Week' -- Defense News

WASHINGTON — A tense standoff between Ukrainian forces and Russian-backed separatists will be over within a week — and will decide whether “all-out war” begins in Eastern Europe, says a US senator.

Florida Sen. Bill Nelson, the No. 3 Democrat on the Senate Armed Services Committee, leaves for a trip to Ukraine later this week, where he will huddle with leaders of that nation and “representatives” for the top US general in Europe.

Nelson told reporters via a conference call that with Moscow-backed separatists occupying several eastern Ukrainian cities, including Donetsk, “I expect within the matter of another week, this is going to be decided one way or another.

“Either Russia comes across the border or the Ukraine military will have prevailed,” Nelson said.

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My Comment: My original prediction on this conflict still holds. The Ukraine military will storm the remaining rebel strongholds and they will be successful in seizing this territory. But the rebels will either then be in the countryside and/or they will join that part of the urban population that is supporting their cause. The end result will be the same .... a guerrilla/asymmetric state of war that is going to drain Ukraine for as long as a a political compromise and agreement is avoided.

1 comment:

Black Knight said...

I have always thought it more likely that Russia would attack once a full assault on Lugansk and Donetsk was underway. I feel that Putin has inflamed nationalistic and Russian sentiment to too high a point to simply sit idly by without paying a large political price at home. It can be done in the name of humanitarian intervention now, and although no one in the West will buy it some countries like China might. And that would be enough. Because let's face it, the US is not going in, and therefore neither is NATO.