Was Putin's Assessment On Syria Correct?

Russian President Vladimir Putin (R) and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. (Reuters)

Was Putin Right About Syria? -- Ishaan Tharoor, Washington Post

What a difference a year makes. Around this time last year, the West was gearing up for military action against the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who was accused of carrying out chemical weapons attacks on his own people. That intervention never came to pass, not least because domestic public opinion in countries such as Britain and the United States was opposed to further entanglements in the Middle East.

Now, the U.S. is contemplating extending airstrikes on Islamic State militants operating in Iraq in Syria — fighters belonging to a terrorist organization that is leading the war against Assad. The Islamic State's territorial gains in Iraq and continued repression and slaughter of religious minorities there and in Syria have rightly triggered global condemnation. "I am no apologist for the Assad regime," Ryan Crocker, a former U.S. ambassador to Syria, told NPR. "But in terms of our security, [the Islamic State] is by far the greatest threat."

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My Comment: In the beginning Moscow's approach towards the Assad regime and the growing Arab Spring movement in Syria was (at best) neutral .... in a certain way they were trying to gauge where the rebellion was going to go. In my opinion this became a lost opportunity .... if Putin had put pressure on the Assad family, the needed reforms and changes may have been enough to stop and satisfy the protest movement .... and we would never  have the civil war that we are witnessing today. But once the Islamic radicals took over the rebellion at the beginning of last year .... coupled with the West's reluctance to support the more moderate elements in the Syrian rebel movement .... there is no question in my mind that Russia then made the decision to intervene in the Syrian war by shipping critical military supplies and intel .... as well as providing political support to the Assad regime on the international level. Will this make a difference in the end .... I do not know. But for the moment the perception is that Putin has better assessed the Syrian situation than his Western counterparts.