When Might a Great Power War Make Sense? -- Ankit Panda, The Diplomat
What will it take for either the U.S. or China to decide to go to war with the other?
Last week, Alex Ward discussed the potential for a great power war between the United States and China. He framed his argument in terms of prominent international relations scholar Robert Gilpin’s “three preconditions,” as presented in his book War and Change in World Politics. Ward convincingly demonstrates that each of Gilpin’s preconditions is either close to being met in today’s world or has already been met, making the probably of a great power war between the U.S. and China, if not high, certainly non-zero. Ward notes that ” Gilpin’s framework serves as a good rubric by which to measure the current global climate,” noting further that “by all measures, this is certainly a dangerous time.”
Gilpin’s War and Change in World Politics is certainly an important work on state-centric realism, but it might be somewhat more useful to consider the work as a whole rather than just focusing on Gilpin’s three preconditions. While Gilpin does lay out the preconditions for war in chapter five, he frames his argument in the book more in terms of traditional economic theory, particularly expected utility theory.
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My Comment: I just do not see such a major war happening .... but I do agree that if a war was to occur, it would likely be instigated by a Chinese conflict with a third party and the United States would be drawn in through treaty obligations.
5 comments:
WNU,
You are Canadian or a dual citizen. Regardless of you citizenship you could pass yourself off as Russian to good effect. It it were me I would do it.
It is a heck of a world after the League of Nations and 57 years after the founding of the UN, that a person has to know where they are and when.
If or when I go on vacation next summer I don't want to know I am in the wrong country.
People like Neville Chamberlain get me riled up. I am thinking about getting dual citizenship if I still can. I have right of return. It might come in handy.
I am a Canadian citizen .... and I have zero interest to change back to being a Russian citizen. But when I go back to Russia .... and I speak Russian to customs .... it's always fun to see them do a double take on hearing my Russian and then checking out my Canadian passport.
As to where is the best place to live .... I have traveled to about 30 countries in my life. I have lived in China, South Korea, Japan, Hong Kong, Russia, Ukraine, and Switzerland. But Canada .... for me is the best place. I hate the high taxes but everything else is fantastic. Oh yeah .... I do hate the cold .... that's my other pet peeve. And for those who may not know it .... I have experienced the Russian - Siberian winter, and the Canadian - Arctic winter .... Canada is the worst of the two.
Anyone else notice the choice of wording in that title? "What will it take...?" as opposed to "What would it take...?" one implies a hypothetical situation while the other implies an eventuality.
Rope Stuff,
Now that you pointed it out I notice it. I also see that the write has an Indian name. I would not think he was part of any cabal, but what do I know? Not much.
WNU,
I did not suggest changing back. Some people are dual citizens and some countries recognize it.
Of course some countries may not care if you change citizenship; once a citizen always a citizen. Someone argued that with me once. I don't quite believe, but I don't discount it totally either. I was not a happy conversation.
I can see 2 pluses to dual citizenship. One is it may be easier to work in another country/countries. The other is to deny your citizenship in a tight spot. Of course the latter could just be delusion on my part especially in this day and age.
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