Is Syrian President Assad The Big Winner From U.S. Airstrikes Against The Islamic State?

Syria's President Bashar al-Assad heads a meeting of his cabinet in Damascus on Aug 31. (Sana/Reuters)

U.S. Airstrikes Are Targeting Islamic State, But They May Wind Up Helping Syria’s Assad -- Washington Post

BAGHDAD — As the United States launches airstrikes against Islamic State extremists in Syria, the Obama administration is walking a precarious line — attempting to crush the militants’ capacity without strengthening President Bashar al-Assad’s hold on power.

On a complex battlefield, the American attacks may wind up giving Assad breathing space, at least in the short term, after months in which his forces suffered stinging defeats at the hands of Islamic State militants, analysts and Syrian rebels said. U.S. and allied forces are striking near areas where Assad’s army has suffered setbacks and opposition forces have little capacity to move in.

In neighboring Iraq, the U.S. military campaign over the past six weeks has provided cover for advances on the ground — Kurdish forces, Iraqi counter­terrorism troops and Shiite militias have all pushed forward against Islamic State extremists. But in Syria, where the stated U.S. policy is to oust Assad’s government, Syrian rebels who have been fighting both against the regime and the extremists for more than three years have been worn down.

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My Comment: A part of me is saying that it is too early to assess the overall impact of recent U.S. air strikes on the Islamic State .... there are too many details that are still unknown. But for Syrian President Assad and his government .... this must come as a short term relief for them. The Islamic State's attention and focus in now diverted towards the U.S., and they must now adjust their military operations with the expectation that a U.S. air strike may hit them at any moment. This tactic will limit their operations .... a limitation that the Syiran government does not have.

But when looking at the long term .... Assad is in trouble. The trends are against him, and unlike earlier in the year when he was winning territory .... today he is losing territory with recent loses in the Golan Heights highlighting how stretched his forces has become.  The Syrian civil war is now a war of attrition that can only favor the Sunni majority (and main opposition) to Assad's Alawite regime .... and while disrupting Islamic State operations and killing some fighters and commanders will hurt Assad's enemies .... they still have the numbers and it appears that their will to win has not been diminished with the U.S. now becoming directly involved. To make a difference the U.S. will need to step up their military involvement .... but this is an escalation that President Obama has already clearly stated will not happen.