Syrian Civil War News Briefs -- September 11 - 12, 2014
I think there is no question on who is winning - SAA - this war, and who actually will win it, only IS could change the situation, but it's depend on how they decide, where they want to focus their fighting, in Iraq or in Syria. My bet is on Syria, because it's the softer target, but we will see.
The situation on the Syrian frontlines are not so bad from the SAA's point of view, here is a short summary:
- Aleppo: Not much action going on here, only slow advances and tries from both side, but no major offences. The city is almost fully encircled, and the only route leading into it is under fire coverage, so the time is against the defenders (rebels).
- Der-er-Zor: Fightings going in this area, SAA try to keep the ground against IS. The situation is seems to be stable here, but IS could start a large offensive at anytime, which could lead to the fall of the city. SAA just saving time here, because as long as IS keep some of their forces around this city, they could attack with lest power on other fronts. The time here is against IS, and probably they will do something to fix this problem.
- Damascus area: SAA is definetly winning in this front, there is no question about that. The ongoing cleanup of Jobar district, and the further advances from Al-Malahe is the most important part of this front. SAA continued the offensive in Eastern Gouta to separate the highly urbanised areas from the less urbanised parts, and force the rebels into a similar situation as happened in Jobar, Barzeh or Al-Qabun districts of the capital.
- Homs area: IS present in more areas of this province then before, which is a great danger. It's very possible that IS will launch an operation in this area, because of the lack of SAA units in this area, and with this move they could reinforce the areas they hold here, to provide support to their own forces in the case if SAA launch a major offensive here.
- Hama area (North): The main action happening here, that was the place where SAA started it's big offensive of this summer. The above report mention the Colonel called Suhail al-Hasan. His nickname is "Tiger", and really one of the best SAA officer. During the last two weeks SAA forces recaptured almost all the areas south from Al-Lataminah, which were captured by rebels just by a month ago. SAA can overpower the rebel forces in North Hama/Morek frontline, with a colonel like al-Hasan, is must be a breakthrough in the direction of Khen-Shikhoun and later to Iblid. I expect more news from this frontline in the following weeks.
- Iblid: Not much going here, only the assasination of the Islamic Front leader (and also other 50 rebel). This frontline will not move until the Hama frontline is not on offense.
- Daraa area: Not much going on this frontline, it's quiet stable now, only minor battles and fighting going on.
- Quinerta area (Golan): Now this is a frontline which I expect to be active, and I think SAA with NDF will liberate (or at least will try) the town of Quinerta, the border crossing and it's area. But SAA and NDF forces in this area not as strong as the Hama front, so the liberation will take some month ( winter is a possible date for that).
- Qalamun and the Libanese border areas: Mostly safe and stable area, with some assasination by SAA and minor skirmishes, but not much.
All in all, after the loss of Tabqa Air Base, the Raqqa frontline just stopeed to exist and now the preassure is more on Hama and Homs. IS has an advantage and if they smart enough they could push SAA to a horrible situation ( the rebels are already in this situation), but I'm not 100% sure that they will do what I think they should do.
Another additional information for the fall of Tabqa AB. A few days after the base had fallen, SAA executed 3 high ranked officer in Tartus province. The 124th unit of Rep. Guards also came from this area. The officers were charged with "helping and giving information to the enemy". Another video appeared on YT just a few days ago (got removed, I lost the track of it) made by IS, which showed fighting around Tabqa, and this video actually showed a supprise attack on SAA units. The video showed large amount of solders fleeing headless, many of them were execution while they running away, or even in their tents where they slept. If this video really came from Tabqa ( and because it's showed even more Mig-21 plane captured with the amount of 10+, and also the captured radars) this could mean that the 124th unit were betreyad by the mentioned officers from Tartus, and this caused the loss of 3-400+ SAA soldier and a fallen base. This story is not easy to belive, now just a theory, but need to be cleaned up.
Additionally, the possible answer for the question "How any officer could stay in their ranks so long if they secretly helped the enemy?" is simple. Tartus was mostly avoided by fighting, and only some minor battle was in this area, mostly in the Lebanese border or some spillover from Hama/Homs, this not gave any good chance for these officers to expose themselfs.
I do not expect any peace between the rebels and the Syrian Gov., because they just don't admint the existance of each others, but I expect truce(s) to be more common in many frontlines.
Here are two recent video footages from the Syrian Civil War (could contain graphic parts):
2 comments:
Good work Mlacix
Thanks. It's an honor to see my work highlighted.
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