Ukrainian parliamentary deputies sing the national anthem after a ratification of a landmark association agreement with the European Union and passed legislation to grant autonomy to the rebellious east as part of a peace deal during a parliament session
Ukraine Parliament Adopts Law on Self-Rule for Eastern Region -- Voice of America
Ukraine's parliament has adopted legislation giving greater autonomy to the separatist regions in the east of the country, as well as amnesty for most of those involved in recent fighting with government forces.
The new laws, which were proposed by Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, are aimed at ending the five-month conflict that has splintered the country.
Ukrainian lawmakers also ratified an agreement to expand economic and political ties with the European Union.
Read more ....
More News On Ukraine Offering 'Special Status' And Amnesty To Ukrainian Separatists
Ukraine crisis: Rebels granted self-rule and amnesty -- BBC
Ukraine Offers Special Status to Rebellious East -- WSJ
Special status to E. Ukraine regions, amnesty to combatants - parliament -- RT
Donetsk might agree with some points of Ukraine’s law on special status of Donbass -- ITAR-TASS
Donbas Leaders Play Down Ukraine’s Bill on Special Status -- RIA Novosti
Ukraine crisis: Rebel east offered three years of limited self-rule in peace deal -- ABC News (Australia)
Poroshenko Ready to Grant Temporary Self-Rule to Ukrainian Separatists -- Moscow Times/Reuters
Ukraine adopts law on self-rule for separatist east -- AFP
Eastern Ukraine offered three years of limited self-rule -- RTE
Ukraine offers east limited self-rule -- SKY News
Ukraine proposes local elections in separatist east -- Channel News Asia
My Comment: If this is what was offered in March (self rule for the east) instead of passing laws that banned Russian .... the annexation of Crimea and the eruption of civil war in eastern Ukraine would never have happened. Unfortunately .... with thousands dead, even more wounded, a million refugees, coupled with massive economic destruction .... I suspect that if a vote was held today in eastern Ukraine for independence .... 90% would vote to succeed from Ukraine. This is a remarkable acknowledgement from the Ukraine parliament that they made a mistake .... but I fear that it is too little, too late.
15 comments:
Rhaegar,
This is a quick stop. Time for you to do some thinking with all the info you've been assembling.
In WNU's post the Ukraine legislature has passed some laws (proposed by Poroshenko) that seem to address the current state of affairs, but are apparently contradictory. The amnesty that sofme in the west oppose and greater ties to Europe that Putin has explicitly opposed. Why would Poroshenko propose this set of laws and why would their legislature pass them?
How many push ups and sit ups?
WNU,
You're busy, those finger tips must be flying! Ah, crepe suzettes in Ben Ghazi, what wine would you serve with themfor the French?
James .... after a busy summer I am now starting to have more free time .... which means more posts, commentaries, and (I hope) useful analysis.
James the best answer to that is fear, Poroshenko knows he can't win against Russias military, so he tries to solve this polticly so he can just limit the seperatists to Donetsk and Luhansk, but who knows how long it will last, also the Americans have been giving more weapons to the Ukrianian government and are talking about more santions. This may continue or it may end. Also I am not sure why the people in the parliament passed the law, pernhaps they were tired of a war that never went well or they were afraid of unrest spreading over the whole country. It may also be Poroshenko who pressed them to agree. I know there is now dissent among the nationalists, many in Rigth sector and other millitia grups are very unhappy of what is happening, worst case for Poroshenko is an armed coup in the winter or before the nationalists are unarmed. Also i tok 7 push ups and 4 sit ups.
Pretty good Rhaegar,
Fear is a good answer. Poroshenko's probably getting pressure from many different sides and this is an attempt to reduce that pressure. Autonomy for the east to keep the Russians on the other side of the border and greater EU ties to give the West something to save face with if they pull out, which a lot of them really want to. The problem with trying to please many people is you generally please no one. Poroshenko had a much stronger position when he had a military, but it has been smashed and he's very vulnerable. Right Sector etal, likely realize that if and when a settlement comes into being their days are numbered, so they are most likely weighing their chances on a coup. WNU doesn't agree they'll try, but I think they will at some point, I don't know if they'll be successful. So in essence I think the west of Ukraine will have it's own mini civil war soon. I'll further up site later on.
Seven and four not bad. Feeling better?
Yes I am starting feeling better, thank you for giving me ideas on how to improve my health, I am a bit slow on the sit ups and push ups, since I have been busy somtimes and other times I have forgoten how to do them right, but my friend helped me some days ago and it has been helping. So now I am atleast doing it right, funny how fast memory can detoriate. I have been doing them before but wrong, but it has helped. My walking has also improved, i walk faster and can walk a little more longer then i could a month ago. Sorry if this is formulated badly, somtimes for me it's difficult to know if I have expslained myself right, so I write more to be sure i haven't left out anything important. Also I agree with you, I think the risk for a coup in Ukriane is high and you are also right that the Ukrainan military is smashed, which greatly weakens Poroshenkos leverage in Kiev and also among the nationalists. I think the coup will most likely happen in winter, and I also think that the outcome is not determined it could go both ways. Also the agreement that grants autonomy to the republics in Dontesk and Luhansk, I think they will not work in the long term with all the different separatist leaders and I think Russia is giving them a free lease since they know that they have nothing to lose, if the separatists restart the war because of ceasfire vilations on both sides or other reasons. I don't know where the crisis is heading, but i am sure there is many ways it can escalate and that the hope for peace in long term is very small. Whats your thoughts on the autonomy deal that Poroshenko worked out and if there will be more unrest in the future in Ukraine eighter it will be the east, the west or the whole country?
Look for a lot of trouble in West Ukraine. East Ukraine has gotten essentially what it wanted. There are pockets of Ukrainian troops and militia there that the Separatist will try to squeeze out, so you might see some minor shoot outs, but nothing major, not with Vladamir looking over their shoulder.
Back in the East it's very different. There are a lot of pissed off people there for a lot of different reasons. There should be a lot of turbulence there for 1 to 2 years. Expect coups and counter coups. There are too many armed groups with clashing agendas for everyone to all of the sudden say "hey let's just sit down and talk this out".
Oh, I almost forgot, you mentioned the elections in Sweden a while back. Look for the conservatives to do very well much to everyones surprise.
On memory and exercise: It's very very important you do them every day. Make up a system to keep track and remember. Mark a calendar.
One other thing your exercise regime should never be longer that ten minutes (excluding walking). That way being too busy is never an acceptable excuse to miss a day.
Your I's are much much better, though I see one or two sneaking through as i's. Always proof read your work.
Ok thank you, I shall be better with the time and the gramar. Also whitch conservatives, do you mean "Sverigesdemokratarne" who is the nationalist party that no one wants to work with but is very important since they have enouth majority to get a choice done that serves their interests. I hope they can stop the imigration problems in Sweden. It's not so bad in Norway with the imigration as in Sweden but we are unfortunatly getting there now the most common name in our capital Oslo is Muhammed and now there is a muslim candidate from a islamic group that pernhaps is supporting jihad in Afghanistan. I hope he dosen't make the elections Fabian Stang the mayor we have now is a god Norwegian guy and I don't want chaos in Oslo, i don't live there but sometimes I visit but only on day time, there are many gangs in some of the districts and It's not the safest place at night especaly not for ladies. Also what do you mean with coups in eastern Ukraine do you mean among the seperatist, since I think Russia will try to avoid that happening or did you mean western Ukraine? Also if the coup who may be in winter succeds i think we will se a return to war again and the risk of Ukraine losing over half of the country since then the Russians can get land bridiges to both Crimea and Transnitsria.
* Meant I think we will see a ratur to war again. I can somtime be quick on the trigger when writing, hope it got fixed now, shame i can't edit the posts to fix grammar errors or can I?
Proof read before you post.
Swedish Conservatives: anti-immigration, fiscally responsible, pro rule of law.
In the Ukraine, it will be in the West where you will see turbulence and coups. The coups will be against the existing governments (example Right Sector alone or in combination with other militia groups). This will go on until the people of Ukraine reconstitute a national military able to disarm the militias, not before.
Like I said before the Ukrainian East will be relatively quiet with sporadic small scale shoot outs with pockets of government troops and militias still in the East. A good example the recent activity around the airport in the East.
Aha then I understand, but if there is a right sector coup and they command the army to fight against the separatists woulden't that lead to a new civil war or will the coup government have limited power? Since I am unsure where the loyalty to the Ukrainian army is and it will take a long time to rebuild it since it still uses the soviet style buildup which is very outdated. They still have maps from the 80ts. It's nice to hear your opinions about this conflict and just to ask, do you think it will be safe to travel to the peoples republics in the future or is it smart to wait some years so things have settled?
Rhaegar,
"Aha then I understand, but if there is a right sector coup and they command the army to fight against the separatists woulden't that lead to a new civil war or will the coup government have limited power?"
Remember when I had you list all the pro Ukrainian militias? Go back to that information and consider what chance those groups would have working together or against each other and would this help them to have a successful coup.
Rhaegar .... you mentioned it .... so some thoughts about going to the Republics in the future. I was suppose to be in Ukraine last month. Visiting relatives and friends in Kiev, Kharkiv, and Odessa. These plans were made in January .... and I was boasting in this blog in February that I was going to go regardless of what happens .... but my mother's injury in May changed everything (I had to take care of her), and the situation dissolved into civil war. I was still thinking of going in July, but staying only for two weeks .... but I was told not to (by a friend who is also a senior parliamentarian) .... the security situation is not safe .... and there are too many mafia gangs who would love to kidnap someone like me. I was told .... give it a year or two before thinking of traveling to Ukraine.
The Baltics are safe .... but not the Caucasus. Russia is OK .... and with the cheap ruble quiet affordable. Speaking of traveling to Russia .... I may be going to Moscow for a few weeks in November .... I have a condo there but it depends on the health of my mom, and of course the GF (she will probably want to go because she has never been there). Anyway .... we shall see. The best time to see/travel to eastern Europe is June/July. The best places to go ... Moscow, Saint Petersburg .... and if it was not for the civil war .... Odessa in Ukraine.
Azov, Right Sector and some of the Aidar battalion will deffinetly try to coup the power and all of those groups are heavely armed and have some combad expserience, if the Ukrianian army support those people in the coup its will defentily be a succesful coup, if the military is loyal to Poroshenko I am unsure who will win, since moste of the militia against the Ukrainian army who have suffered heavy defeats and who are not prepared for combat in Kiev.
First assertion you make; If Ukraine army and the militias cooperate it will be a successful coup.
My reply: Yes it will be successful militarily, but will it be successful politically?
Second Assertion: If the Ukraine army stays loyal to Poroshenko then the outcome is uncertain to you.
My reply: You would have essentially two evenly matched armed forces. Usual out come of this, civil war.
Summation: Coup attempts by right wing armed militias in West Ukraine, likely. Would they be successful, militarily maybe, politically very doubtful. Chance for small scale civil war in West Ukraine: high
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