My Comment: I do not live in Scotland .... and I will confess that I am slightly ignorant on the issues that have framed this independence vote. But .... I have experienced and lived through independence votes in the past (Ukraine, Quebec) ... and it is in this context that I am making this analysis. To begin .... I just do not feel that the passion is there for a Yes vote to succeed. There is also a great deal of uncertainty .... especially on economic issues. People want and need to feel reassured that if they vote for a change .... their standard of life will not change .... that life will go on (if not better). Have the Yes side made their case on this critical issue .... maybe .... but from where I am standing I am not getting that guarantee that would be important for me. But that is just me.
In the end ... people will vote Yes because to them it is a new start and a hope that their Scottish cultural identity will be preserved. The ones who will vote No will do so because of economic reasons .... and a loyalty towards the U.K..
My prediction .... the undecided will swing and vote No .... the final result will be 58% No, 42% Yes.
5 comments:
Never underestimate the Haggis vote!
James .... I know. Trying to figure out the Scots is like trying to figure out women .... a hopeless cause.
Every Scotsman I've ever spoken to has always evoked the same thought in my mind after only a few minutes of conversation "you are a lunatic!"
Jamese here is the answer to your question:
Azov, Right Sector and some of the Aidar battalion will deffinetly try to coup the power and all of those groups are heavely armed and have some combad expserience, if the Ukrianian army support those people in the coup its will defentily be a succesful coup, if the military is loyal to Poroshenko I am unsure who will win, since moste of the militia against the Ukrainian army who have suffered heavy defeats and who are not prepared for combat in Kiev.
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Also I hope Scottland get independent, but I am unsure if it will be the outcome. Most of the polls before the election is saying that Scottland will not be independent, but is the polls a good sourch since there are still undecided votes. Also are the Scottish people known for making totaly different choices of what is espected or not?
To much Scottish and British blood was spilt fighting Germans in ww1 and ww2. To me this vote is a spit in the face to the men who laid down their lives in defense of the greater kingdom. I do however not live in Scotland and will not pretend to know the issues of the citizens who do
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