Saturday, September 6, 2014

Will The Ukraine Ceasefire Hold?



East Ukraine Calm After Ceasefire, But Residents Doubt It Will Last -- Reuters

(Reuters) - A ceasefire between Ukrainian forces and pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine appeared to be holding on Friday evening, despite some initial shelling in the rebel stronghold of Donetsk.

However, many residents and combatants were skeptical that the ceasefire could last long or turn into a basis for a durable peace settlement after six months of conflict. The two sides remain far apart on the future of the region.

The ceasefire was approved by envoys from Ukraine, the separatist leadership, Russia and Europe's OSCE security watchdog meeting in Minsk as part of a peace road map that also includes an exchange of prisoners and the creation of a humanitarian corridor for refugees and aid.

Read more ....

More News On Reactions To The Ukraine Ceasefire

Poroshenko Not Confident About Long-Term Ceasefire in East of Ukraine -- RIA Novosti
Obama says hopeful but skeptical of Ukraine ceasefire -- Reuters
Ukraine's Refugees in Kyiv Not Ready to Go Home -- VOA
Truce in Ukraine Spawns Hope, Doubt in West -- WSJ
Ukraine's uneasy ceasefire hangs in the balance -- The Telegraph

My Comment: President Obama is not optimistic that the ceasefire will hold. Ukrainian President Poroshenko is not confident about a long term ceasefire taking hold in eastern Ukraine. The pro-separatist leaders are expecting the worse. The local civilian populations have doubts that it will last. And the refugees .... many (if not all of them) are not rushing to get back home. This does not instill confidence in me that this ceasefire will hold. I am already receiving reports that skirmishes are happening in regions that are controlled by Ukrainian forces in Luhansk and Donestk far away from where the rebel lines .... apparently some of the locals are not happy that with the implementation of the ceasefire they are not under the jurisdiction of the separatist government, and are expressing their disappointment. I know that Ukrainian President Poroshenko is now under heavy pressure by Ukrainian nationalists who want to continue the fight ... still believing that there is a military solution to the conflict, and now is a good time to regroup and prepare the next phase of the war.

What's my prediction .... I am hoping for peace but everyone is looking for a continuation of the war. Where this conflict will go is now solely in the hands of Ukrainian President Poroshenko .... but he has not gone out his way in the past to search for a political compromise .... and I doubt that he will now. The political talks that have been promise are (I expect) going to be a bust, and a defacto stalemate will now exist in the eastern part of the country. The next few months are going to be rough for everyone. And while I do know that Russia will go out of it's way to assist the disastrous humanitarian situation in eastern Ukraine, Ukraine itself is now facing what will probably be a horrible winter. Gas and energy supplies have been cut off from Russia, and Western aid is just a drop in the bucket for what Ukraine now needs to restore some balance in it's economy.

13 comments:

Rhaegar said...

Sorry but, war news dosent post lies, he is a neural sourch which i regard as very trusted and not biased. If you have a problem with it, you can discuss it with war news.

D.Plowman said...

He may be Russian, but he's practically Canadian, you can't get any more unbiased than that!

Rhaegar said...

I concur D Plowman. He is very Unbiased and can see and understand the Russian perspective very well.

James said...

Rhaegar,
Your english is getting better. Work on your spelling ans what letters to capitalize a little more. Your thinking has also improved also.

James said...

Oh, I have found an image of the shadowy and elusive WNU! Google "reply of the zaporozhian cossacks", WNU is the one at the table with a pen composing his latest post.

Rhaegar said...

Thank you:) are still doing my exsercises, can`t wait for my friend come home fron Rhodos. Hasent had a long walk since last saturday since i dont know the ways. I am very slow to learn locations. One question, how long does it take before my running will imrove? I am slowest in my class it took me around 27 seconds to run 100 meter. The normal was around 10- 15 seconds.

War News Updates Editor said...

I go away for a day to visit the GF in Ontario .... and I come back home .... turn on the computers .... and see the carnage.

Rhaegar .... thanks for the support.

D. Plowman .... I am not only a Canadian right now (and proud of it) .... but I live in the French part of the country. So .... what does that make me .... nationality Russian/Ukrainian .... who lived in China/South Korea for a few years .... then Switzerland .... became a Canadian citizen in the early 1990s .... and who speaks French. Hmmmm .... I guess that makes me a Russian/Ukrainian/Chinese/Korean/Swisss/Canadian/French Quebecois (Quebec) citizen of the world. Yup .... no biases here. :)

Now James .... "reply of the zaporozhian cossacks" .... what can I say .... I feel busted.

James said...

WNU,
You do have a smile on your face while you're working that quill pen. I'm like the old guy on the left between the black hat and the red hat.
Rhaegar,
On the 100 meters, it might be your weight that's holding you back. How tall are you and how much do you weigh in Kilos?
You may have noticed also that the more you can do the easier it is to do more.
If you are very much over weight, you must go slow on losing it and on your training as you lose the weight. The key to all of this is not to make great improvements all at once, but a little at a time slowly but surely. This also gives your body the chance to get used to doing these things without damaging it.

Rhaegar said...

Ok i see, i am 15 years old ca 162 cm high and i weight 70kg. I dont think it is the weight since my walking has improved, but my running lacks.

James said...

You should get your weight down to about 63kgs. That will make a big difference in all your efforts. It might take about 3 months, but if you exercise regularly and don't eat too much fatty foods it shouldn't be that hard.

Rhaegar said...

Ok shall try my best. Do confusing thing withe me is that my weight is eigter going towards 72 or downwards to 68, why is it changing so quickely ? It goes down in verying speed and sometimes it increase with 1 kg after 2 days. Its confusing but it has been better with training so i hope it will help on sight.

James said...

Rhaeger,
When you start exercising some things will happen that seem to be illogical.
First: An up and down of a kilo or so will have to do with water in your body. You probably have alot at the moment. When you exercise you sweat and go to the bathroom a lot. You're losing water right there.
Secondly: Many times when you start a program of exercise and dieting you may at first gain some weight instead of losing it, especially if you are a male. Your body will start turning the fat you have into muscle. Muscle is denser than fat, so you can become smaller, but not lose much weight at first. The body can only convert fat to muscle so fast, so at some point you will lose weight.
The sequence is roughly as follows when you start exercising:
First; loss of excess water in the body
Second; fat into muscle
Third; Accelerated fat loss.
Of course as you get in better shape; your muscles grow and you lose weight, which means better muscles pushing around less weight, easier to do!

Rhaegar said...

Thank you, good to know :)