Sunday, October 5, 2014

Ukraine Truce Exists In Name Only



One Month In, Ukraine Truce Exists In Name Only -- AFP

Donetsk (Ukraine) (AFP) - Ukrainian forces and pro-Russian rebels marked a month since the signing of a Kremlin-backed truce on Sunday by engaging in one of the most heated battles of their six-month war over the ex-Soviet state's eastern rustbelt.

The artillery blasts that rocked the frontline city of Donetsk were yet another blow to the 12-point peace agreement signed on September 5, and which is officially still in force.

"There is no ceasefire. You hear?" 31-year-old resident Yekaterina Manannikova said, pointing in the direction of Donetsk airport, once a glittering showcase for the biggest city in the east, now the battered scene of a non-stop firefight.

Read more ....

More News On Ukraine's Civil War

Ukraine's truce in trouble amid airport battle -- AP
Ukraine military says separatists violate month-old ceasefire -- Reuters
Ukraine Military Says Separatists Violated Month-Old Ceasefire -- NBC
Ukraine's Month-old Cease-fire Marked by Battle -- VOA
Ukraine: Separatists storm Donetsk airport -- Euronews
Pro-Russia rebels attempt to seize Donetsk airport in Ukraine -- the Guardian
Ukraine conflict: Heavy fighting for Donetsk airport -- BBC
Ukraine says its forces killed 12 rebels at Donetsk airport. -- Reuters
Ukraine says 12 rebels killed in Donetsk -- Al Jazeera
Donetsk Authorities Say 2 People Killed, 8 Wounded in Shelling of City -- RIA Novosti
Uneasy ceasefire in Ukraine sees fresh violence -- Deutsche Welle
Kiev Says Ceasefire Agreement in Ukraine Disrupted by Uncontrolled Troops -- RIA Novosti
In Ukraine, Civilians in Crossfire -- New York Times
Rebels in Eastern Ukraine Dream of Reviving Soviet Heyday -- New York Times
More than 1,000 Ukrainian troops released over ceasefire in eastern Ukraine -- ITAR-TASS
Ukraine Prepares for East Buffer Zone With Artillery Vow -- Bloomberg
Ukraine Battles Dent Poroshenko Optimism on Arms Pullback -- Bloomberg
West raises pressure on Russia to save Ukraine truce -- AFP

My Comment: Social media is abuzz with stories of military battles throughout eastern Ukraine .... and while such reports are impossible to verify .... as the above video shows .... heavy armor is being used. My guess is that the rebels have decided to put pressure on the Ukraine army to push them out of the rest of Donetsk and Luhansk provinces .... and while the focus is on Donetsk airport .... small hit and run attacks are probably occurring throughout the region. I also know from my sources in Kiev that the Ukraine military never ventures out of their bases and FOBs at night throughout eastern Ukraine .... it is just too dangerous.

10 comments:

Rhaegar said...

This sounds bad, who knows if the separatists dosen't stop when they have cleared both regions, since I think Poroshenko will retaliate or some of the millitia will do. This can quiqly escalate back to a full war and the risk of Ukraine declaring war agianst Russia in worst case. I hope that dosen't happen but Porosenko has his taste for "roughnes" if thats the word for it. Also just to ask any news from what the sepeartists are doing on the ground? Also how does the diffferent leaders govern the provinces? And what is your opinion on this ceasfire and the risk of a worst case scenario there Russia and Ukraine have a direct war against each other? Do you see that as a high risk if the confict continues to escalate or do you think Poroshenko will not do that? Since I don't know so much about Poroshenko but I think he will do that if he doesnt see the risk of a poltical agreement and a peacfull solution he will try his best to damage Russia and to get western military support like weapons and other things to kick the separatists out of Ukraine. which could escalate the crisis even further. But this is unsure to me since there is so many thing that could happen and this scenarioes I wrote is just in broad terms. Hope I formulated this right. Would be nice to know your opinions War News.

War News Updates Editor said...

As bad as the war in the east is .... Poroshenko's number one problem is the economy and having no natural gas from Russia. His focus is on resolving that crisis before facing the rebels in the east. The rebels in the east want the Ukraine army out of the Donetsk and Luhansk .... and I expect them to escalate this conflict. Unfortunately .... there has been little if any talks or discussions on peace .... it appears that both sides are not interested in talking. My prediction .... the fighting will continue throughout the winter. Russia will have a minimal military footprint, but they will provide arms, natural gas, and a place for the rebels to train. Poroshenko's goal is to survive the winter.

Jay Farquharson said...

The Ukraine Gov say's they won't leave the airport, until the shooting stops.

Part of that shooting is the indescriminant shelling of Donetsk by the Forces at the airport,

So, the "truce" will not apply in Donetsk until the Ukrainian Forces leave the airport.

James said...

WNU, one of the mysteries I would love to know the answer to is: What was the white truck convoy? What was it's real purpose? Did it ever carry anything? If it did what? Who's idea was it?

James said...

Rhaegar,
A small lesson on the use of the letter S in the English language. Generally speaking when a word ends in s it's an indication of plurality "there was two Rhaegars at the concert", a possessive "it was Rhaegar's comment, or indication of a quality, " roughness, quickness, firmness. You'll notice that only the quality use of s has two of them, always. Otherwise you have a pretty could grasp of English, you should be proud of yourself in that regard.

Rhaegar said...

Thank you James, this will be good to know :) .

Jay Farquharson said...

James,

By all accounts of everyone who actually had a look at the contents of the convoy, the Red Cross, Intl Journo's, the DPR and LGR, the trucks contained humanitarian relief,

And since that initial convoy, there have been three more.

James said...

Jay,
Thanks for the info. I would still like to know the discussions behind the decision to send it, and why it was sent when it was.

Jay Farquharson said...

James,

It's not rocket science. Following standard "western" models, Ukrainian Armed Forces targeted ifrastructure, from cell phone towers, through water supplies, the power grid, the sewage treatment plants.

This was the area that elected the pro-Russian, semi neutral Party of Regions, and in any fair vote, would continue a pro-Russian voteing pattern, and would neutralize any pro-EU vote.

Ethnically cleansing the region by creating refugees would help to neutralize such sentiment.

So, the convoy was to address the actual humanitarian crisis in the region.

Politically, the convoy was timed to coincide with the DPR and LPR military victories, which re-established a contiguous secure zone,

And to force the western MSM to actually acknowledge that , after months of studiously ignoring it, that there actually was a humanitarian crisis, and a massive refugee issue, in the area.

War News Updates Editor said...

This aid convoy is also a sign on how much Russia has changed over the past few years. In the past .... Russia rarely sent humanitarian aid unless there were strings attached and/or an ally was involved.

It should also be noted that a lot of Russian politics was involved. Sending the aid convoy was what the Russian public wanted to see .... and Putin who follows poll numbers closely complied. No surprise .... this only strengthened Putin's position in the eye of the Russian public.