A Islamic State fighter walks near a black flag belonging to the Islamic State near the Syrian town of Kobani, pictured from the Turkish-Syrian border near the southeastern town of Suruc in Sanliurfa province, October 6, 2014. REUTERS/Umit Bektas
Isis On The Verge Of Victory In Kobani As US Strategy Lies In Ruins: Jihadists Close To Taking City Near Turkish Border -- The Independent
Syria’s Kurds are unable to do a political deal with neighbouring Turkey, while US air strikes are failing to make much impact, Patrick Cockburn reports
Isis is close to capturing the Syrian Kurdish town of Kobani, just a short distance from the Turkish border, after a three-week siege in which US air strikes turned out to be ineffective in preventing Isis winning an important victory.
With Isis fighters also making advances into western Baghdad, which may allow them to close the city’s airport with artillery fire, President Obama’s strategy of containing the Islamic militants in Iraq and Syria is in ruins.
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My Comment: The fall of this town would give the Islamic State complete control of northern Syria straight to Mosul and Anbar province in Iraq. U.S. air strikes have clearly not been effective .... and U.S./allied support for anti-Islamic forces have been inadequate (if at all). Bottom line .... U.S. policy and strategy to contain the expansion of the Islamic State is not working .... and my prediction now is that with the fall of this town, Islamic State forces will then focus their fire power and resources on the Syrian army, and on consolidating their control of the Sunni regions of Iraq.
3 comments:
Here is a concurring opinion:
1. I agree that ISIS' conquest of Kobani would be a major victory for ISIS. Control of Kobani would eliminate a major pocket of resistance in ISIS' rear lines and enable them to redeploy their forces elsewhere.
2. I agree that ISIS' conquest of Kobani would be a defeat for the Western policy of fighting ISIS everywhere. I also agree that ISIS' conquest of Kobani would obviously be a major defeat for the Kurds.
3. I respectfully submit that, from a Turkish perspective, ISIS' conquest of Kobani is not so horrible to contemplate. Turkey may, in fact, be mildly in favor of ISIS' conquest of Kobani, or maybe indifferent to the outcome of the battle.
a. Turkey has fought the Kurds for decades and has no love lost for them. Turkey is, at best, ambivalent about the emergence of Kurdestan. I can easily imagine Turkey hoping that the fight for Kobani goes on indefinitely, with lots of casualties on both sides. From Turkey's perspective, every Kurd killed by ISIS, and every ISIS fighter killed by Kurds, is one fewer fighter Turkey may have to fight someday.
b. From Turkey's perspective, ISIS' conquest of Kobani will clarify for the Kurds that active Turkish support is valuable: all of Kurdestan is vulnerable (even with Western air support) to ISIS without active Turkish support. For Turkey, this may be the true significance of the battle for Kobani, not who eventually wins it.
4. For Turkey, an ISIS conquest of Kobani can be contained at the border. I doubt that Turkey fears an ISIS invasion. Moreover, I suspect that the Turkish army has confidence that it can conquer Kobani from ISIS anytime it likes. Note well that I do not say that the Turkish calculation is objectively correct; I am saying only that this may be their calculation.
5. The battle for Kobani illustrates how the U.S./Western strategy for attacking ISIS differs from the national interests of our coalition "partners". For the U.S./West, attacking ISIS trumps Turkish calculations outlined above about the Kurds. For the Turks, their calculations about the Kurds trump the attractiveness of saving Kobani from ISIS.
Yup, Publius is probably right,
The Turks are sitting outside Kobani just as the Red Army sat outside Warsaw.
Red Army staying outside of Warsaw .... can't argue with that reference.
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