Is Russia Planning A Winter Offensive? -- Michael Kofman, CNN
(CNN) -- The buildup of separatist forces in Donetsk, Ukraine, and Moscow's patently confrontational tone are raising the specter of another offensive in eastern Ukraine before winter grips the region. On Wednesday, NATO warned that "columns of Russian equipment, primarily Russian tanks, Russian artillery, Russian air defense systems and Russian combat troops" had been spotted entering Ukraine.
Is this crisis about to flare up again, just two months after Russia withdrew its forces?
Given the strategic costs, it might seem unlikely that Russia would reignite this war, especially with winter looming. Yet both the opportunity and the motivation appear to be there in Moscow.
The invasion of Ukraine and confrontation with the West have whipped up nationalist sentiment, but Russia has run out of foreign policy victories to feed to the fire. That might explain why Moscow is aggravating NATO with airspace violations and playing alleged underwater games with Sweden, moves that appear aimed at keeping the Russian public in a confrontational mood.
Read more ....
Update #1: New Ukraine offensive 'unlikely' despite build-up fears: experts -- AFP
Update #2: A Showdown Over Ukraine Is Coming -- Matt Siegel, Reuters
WNU Editor: My analysis and predictions on the Ukraine crisis is here. Putin is now in Australia attending the G20 meeting .... what happens when he comes back is what will dictate the future course of events in the Ukraine conflict .... and I am betting that he and the separatists in eastern Ukraine are going to intensify the conflict.
7 comments:
Given what you know, and the analysis you made, WNU Editor,
Do you ever read these shallow, willfully "ignorant" op-eds and just want to do a face plant on your desk?
Jay .... I make mistakes also, and some opinions that I held dear for years .... today .... I just shake my head. But I learn .... and this blog exposes me to multiple opinions and perceptions that helps me understand how this world functions.
As for the Ukraine crisis .... the media, pundits and specialists, western governments .... they do not have a clue on what a mess this is, and they certainly have little if any understanding of this regions history and culture. I am from this part of the world .... and even I am wrong on occasion .... albeit rarely ... or so I like to think. :)
There is a major difference between "making mistakes", making probable forcasts with caveats that don't wind up happening,
And "crafting a narrative" to "push the propaganda".
These day's, when you can google the recent past, and make contact with views and opinions from around the world, the wilfull blindness of the 5th Estate just makes me shake my head.
Creating a narrative and pushing an agenda .... so true of today's 5th Estate.
WNU,
I related our conversation about your aunt to my mother (they are almost the same age). I may have told you this before, but my family (working middle class, Texas ) knew a lot about what was happening in Russia during the 40's. It was they who told me as a young person about Stalingrad, Leningrad, and essentially the Eastern front. They always used adjectives such as very very terrible. Well I digress in a way, tell your aunt, my mother says she is thinking of her and remembers the early 40's.
She also said to tell her if anyone gives her any trouble to shoot the sob's. Relating this I leave to your discretion.
LOL. Thanks.
My aunt is actually a very mild lady. But the one who I am really afraid of and who scares the beejeesus out of me and everyone else is her older sister who is a tiger .... cough cough .... she is also my mom. :)
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