Smoke rises above a new terminal of the Sergey Prokofiev International Airport after the recent shelling during fighting between pro-Russian separatists and Ukrainian government forces in Donetsk, eastern Ukraine, November 9, 2014. REUTERS/Maxim Zmeyev
WNU Editor: First things first .... when the ceasefire among the combatants was agreed upon in September I shut my brain off when it came to analyzing the Ukraine conflict. Call it fatigue and depression .... a realization that the country that I once knew, lived in, and hoped to live in when I got older .... no longer existed. That the country that my family (on my father's side) can trace its roots back centuries .... it no longer had a place or future for me. But I still believed that some accommodation was going to be eventually reached .... that the worst case scenario that I outlined in April - May when the conflict started to escalate (full scale war, towns and cities under siege, ethnic cleansing, a humanitarian crisis involving millions, followed by a Russian military invasion to stop the carnage) .... all of this was not going to be realized.
Unfortunately .... I was wrong .... and a massive crisis that will have international repercussions is about to unfold.
This is the sequence of events that has brought me to where I am today ....
September 5, 2014: Ukraine and pro-Russia rebels sign ceasefire deal (BBC)
October 7, 2014: Ukraine Ceasefire Near Collapse
November 3, 2014: Poroshenko threatens action against ‘criminals that crowned themselves’ (Globe and Mail)
November 4, 2014: Ukraine rebel leaders sworn in, Kiev says peace plan violated (Swiss Info)
November 4, 2014: President Poroshenko threatens to scrap eastern Ukraine’s ‘special status’ after weekend elections (Euronews)
November 5, 2014: Ukraine to Freeze Payments in Separatist Areas (New York Times)
November 6, 2014: Russian President Putin Holds National Security Council Meeting On The Deteriorating Situation In Ukraine
November 7, 2014: These Disturbing Maps Show a Growing Humanitarian Crisis No One Is Talking About (World.mic)
November 7, 2014: Humanitarian operation in Ukraine most complex for Red Cross — ICRC president (ITAR-TASS)
November 7, 2014: BREAKING NEWS: Russian Tanks Followed By Artillery And Infantry Are Now Entering Ukraine.
November 7, 2014: Are Russian Military Forces Invading Ukraine?
November 8, 2014: US Not Confirming Ukraine Reports Of A Russian Tank Column Crossing The Border
November 8, 2014: Ukraine Ceasefire Is Crumbling As Fighting Flares Throughout The Region
November 10, 2014: Ukraine Ceasefire On The Verge Of Breaking Down
November 10, 2014: U.S. Raises Concerns On Russia's Military Buildup In East Ukraine
November 11, 2014: Ukraine shelling continues as top rebels visit Moscow (Irish Times)
November 11, 2014: Ukraine On The Verge Of Bankruptcy
November 12, 2014: Ukraine Expects A New Russian And Rebel Offensive In The East.
November 12, 2014: NATO: Russian Troops, Tanks, And Artillery Have Crossed The Ukraine Border
November 12, 2014: Ukraine redeploys troops, fearing new rebel offensive (Reuters)
What broke the "camel's back" were the rebel held elections a week and a half ago, and the Ukraine government's decision to cut off all assistance and payments to individuals in rebel held territories. This has precipitated a major humanitarian crisis ... more so as winter is now fast approaching. The reason why this humanitarian crisis has erupted is because of the civilian population .... primarily hundreds of thousands of senior citizens of Russian descent .... who now find themselves trapped in a conflict zone with little if any utilities, support, or even basic foodstuffs. Their pensions and payments have been stopped, there is no aid, they have no where to go, winter has just about arrived, and the war is now continuous.
The reason why this is important is that senior citizens do hold a very special place in Russian culture and society. It is hard for me to explain what and how deep this sentiment is .... it is just there .... and it is one of the things that all of us Russians can identify with. That is why stories on the suffering of these civilians is having an impact in Russia .... no one can ignore this story even if they wanted to ... it impacts every home and every family. On a side note .... this is also Putin's electoral base .... throughout his political career he has always been committed to making sure that Russian seniors get their pensions, medical and housing benefits,and other services. And no surprise .... they in turn have always voted for him overwhelmingly.
With these dynamics now in play, it is this approaching humanitarian catastrophe that is now driving Moscow's policies and actions towards this conflict .... and since last weeks Russian National Security Council meeting .... the impression that I am receiving is that everyone is now being pressured to act as fast as possible. In the past two days I have talked to my friends in the Russian government and in the media .... and all of them are telling me that they are utterly horrified with the news and reports that they are reading and/or seeing on TV. This news has even impacted the Russian President's office .... where someone I trust told me that Putin made a decision last week to put a stop to all of this .... and while I am not sure if his information is accurate, it would not surprise me if all options are now being considered.
As to what is my prediction .... after Russian PM Medvedev has returned from the ASEAN summit .... options for a major military offensive followed by a massive humanitarian operation will be considered .... and I am willing to bet good money that Putin will sign off on it. I expect them to deploy a few thousand soldiers (if they are not in eastern Ukraine already) whose primarily mission will be to work with local rebel forces to evict Ukrainian military forces from the Donetsk city limits .... and if the fighting escalates .... to push them back even further. I expect the Ukrainian military and the government to react strongly against this .... and Western sanctions to be intensified .... but Putin has already given up on the West .... his focus is to end this crisis, and to focus on Asia. In a few years .... when everything has cooled down .... A Russia - West rapprochement may occur .... but that is for the future .... the primary goal right now (at least in Moscow's eyes) is to end this conflict through military means, and to end it quickly.
The next few days are going to be critical on where this conflict is going to go. I am hopeful that I am totally and utterly wrong .... but sadly .... many of my dire predictions have come true in this conflict .... and I sadly suspect that I am going to be proven right again.
6 comments:
WHY DIDNT RUSSIA TAKE THESE AREAS WHEN THEY TOOK CRIMEA ALL THIS MITE NOT HAVE OCCURED AND WHY ARE THEY NOT ATTACKING LIKE WHAT YOU SAID BFORE ALL OUT ATTACK OVER IN FEW DAYS IT LOOKS LIKE THEY ARE SENDN IN BITS AND PIECES OF HIGH QUALITY STUFF BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WIN IN FEW DAYS IF EVEN THESE REPORTS ARE TRUE NOBODY KNOW REALLY ESPECILLY FROM NATO GET BELIEVE ANYTHING THEY SAY THERE JUST MOUTHPIECE OF USA WHO SEEM TO RAMPING UP PRESSURE ON RUSSIA AND WILL IN END GET THERE WAR THAT PUTIN HAS BEEN TRYING TO AVOID
Peter .... I do not think this conflict will end in a few days, weeks, or even months. It is what I call a "stop-gap" measure .... and a hope (from Moscow) that the Ukraine government will back down .... especially if there is military pressure. I guess we will know in the next few days/weeks on where this may all go .... but in the meantime the humanitarian situation in eastern Ukraine is getting worse.
I concur war news, this may end very badly now. Just asking if it comes to Russia deploying troops, will there be annaxsation or will they be there to the conflict is over and the area will be made into a puppet state instead of getting annexed?
Also I agree with a strongly reaction from both military and government in Ukraine, could there be war between the two or will Poroshenko back down and try to go on the defencive?
Are there any other ways Putin may take that could solve this much more peacfully or is this the most likely scenario? I think it is but it would be nice to know if there are any other possible outcomes.
Also do you think there is a risk of a landbrige between crimea and russia, and that in worst case the Russian army try to take Odessa to get a connection to Transnistria? Since will they limit the area or will they try to take nerby regions and cities like Kharkov, Dniprovorsk, Odessa etc?
But thank you for this analysis, I agree with it and I diden't know of this potential humanitarian catastrophe, my media has not been mentiong this but I think you are right.
Get them through the winter and see what spring brings.
I agree it seems Russia could have done this last spring when the Ukrainian army was in disarray and Donetsk and Lugansk still in one piece. I think Putin underestimated Kiev's willingness to use force to try to settle the question. He was being logical and assumed they would not pick a fight they could not win. But they are not logical and now he will have to carve a land
route to Crimea and assume responsibility for a gutted east with the Kiev army much better prepared (if still unable to resist Russian armed forces) than would have been the case last spring.
Lugansk and Donetsk are UKRAINE. You are full of **** WMU. You are a old liar comunist that try to cover the terrorist actions of the NAZI putin.
You dont know but i cant tell you: since Minsk there was no cease fire from the terrorists that came from russia. Since Minsk, +100 Uk. sold. died and several are injured.
Are you a fkin idiot or you only want to write bs after bs? How come can the Uk gov pay the people in Donbass when there are terrorists controling the Region?
Your fkin race of old comunists is ****. Your end is near so as putin.
OUT OF EUROPE MFUKERS!!!!!
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