Love Him or Hate Him, Vladimir Putin's Poll Numbers Have Never Been Higher -- Mark Adomanis, Forbes
In the increasingly severe standoff between East and West, there’s a general assumption among most Western policy makers and analysts that Russia’s worsening economy will severely weaken Vladimir Putin’s domestic position. As a regime with “performance legitimacy,” Putin’s ought to be highly vulnerable to any downturns in growth. Astute analysts of Russian politics have long noted that, upon coming to power, Putin essentially cut a deal with the Russian public: you stay out of politics, I’ll make sure the economy grows and that wealth trickles down.Any changes in the terms of this deal run the risk of mass protests and perhaps even of a Orange Revolution style uprising. Or so the story went.
The belief in Putin’s vulnerability on the economic front is exactly why the West decided to implement a sanctions regime: it was a way of “punishing” Russia that would avoid the risk of military conflict while simultaneously undermining what little support the authorities had left. The operating assumption was that when Russians saw the economic costs of their country’s policy in Ukraine they would decide that their political leadership was a bunch of buffoons and demand change. Russians, in other words, would prefer continued access to consumer goods over influence in Ukraine, iPads over great power status.
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My Comment: I am not a fan of Putin .... never have been .... but Mark Adomanis is correct .... Putin is enjoying high poll numbers. The reason why is simple, and I mentioned this a few months ago .... when under threat and/or facing international criticism the Russians always "circle the wagons" .... and in this case Putin has positioned himself shrewdly to be in the middle of this circle. There are still some who are hopeful that sanctions and its impact on the Russian economy will result in protests increasing against Putin .... Why Russians may soon tire of Putin’s antics (Bessma Momani, The Globe and Mail) .... this may be true but for the moment (and I have already predicted for next year) .... these protests are going to be muted.
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