The Spy Who Told Me: Can We Handle the Truth About the Islamic State? -- John McLaughlin, OZY
It’s been two months to the day since President Barack Obama announced an accelerated attack against the so-called Islamic State. So what are the hard realities we’re dealing with? And, given that U.S. officials say it could take up to a year to train and field a ground force to combat the Islamic State in Syria, where will we stand a year from now?
A number of harsh realities are staring us in the face, each a reminder of the agonizing choices ahead:
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My Comment: A sobering analysis on what lies ahead in the war against the Islamic State. This is a must read.
4 comments:
(1) I do not believe there are moderate groups in Syria. The FSA does not qualify IMO.
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/28/magazine/theo-padnos-american-journalist-on-being-kidnapped-tortured-and-released-in-syria.html
Theo Padnos, American Journalist, on Being Kidnapped, Tortured and Released in Syria
“But a recent report in the Wall Street Journal that Obama has written to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei could mean there is interest in trying to coordinate anti-Islamic State activity with Tehran, at least in a narrow way.”
(2a) So once the Islamic State is on the ropes and it is being pushed west of Ramada and Mosul, what is the half-life of an American advisor in Iraq?
(2b) If so much as one is killed due by Iran via proxy or by stealth, it is one too many. The Iranians have been killing us since day 1 in Afghanistan and Iraq. Are we to work with them, because there is a temporary truce?
(3) It really doesn’t matter if Russia has a port at Tartus or if Syria is friendlier to Russian than the U.S. What matters is that we owe Assad. He was in charge, when he allowed and his security services assisted jihadis entering Iraq along its’ western border.
Tîmê which is important in international standing, of how other nations treat each other, must be satisfied. We need a scalp. Assad’s scalp. Being tried & convicted at ‘The Hague’ might satisfy it. Having one scalp might not work at this late stage. We might need the scalp of the top 3 or 7 of the security services involved in assisting the jihadis entering Iraq.
It might have worked if Assad had gone into exile 2 years ago. It is a little late for that now. Some speculated that he was not allowed to leave as his side might have collapsed if he packed his bags and left. So he was not given a choice. Still he accepted the job after living in London, he ordered or went along with the infiltration of jihadis into Iraq and he has been in charge of the war (or at least the figurehead) for the last 3 years. If we don’t get a scalp what do we get?
20% of the refugees of 13 million, who do not integrate well, and Iran establishing a belt of control from Tehran to Beirut? That sounds like winner. Not!
It would be better to pullout and let Saudi Arabia, Turkey, & Iran with all their proxies bleed.
Conspiracies theories aside ISIS / Al Qaeda are not our guys. The U.S. supported Gulbuddin Hekmatyar during the Afghanistan war because Pakistan, the ISI, insisted. Gulbuddin Hekmatyar was their guy not Osama. Neither is Hezbollah or the Shia politicians in Iraq our guys. We tried to make the Shia politicians somewhat like us. We failed. The Shia politicians are more beholden by a far sight than they ever were to the U.S. This is an Iranian (Shia)/ Sunni mess. Let them bleed. At least when they are sticking each other there are less of them or they can focus less attention on sticking us with a knife.
Aizino,
On an emotional level I agree with you, especially the last paragraph. The problem is can we live with any of the foreseeable outcomes of a "hands off, let fight it out among themselves" policy?
WNU,
What this guy writes is pretty much what I've been babbling about for awhile. The two key strategic pieces ignored or understated in almost all conversations I've heard are Russia and Israel.
Russia and Israel have had the common sense to stay out of this fight .... so far. But this .... like all things in the Middle east .... can change very quickly.
Oil prices are are soft. Saudi Arabia could cut back production a great deal and maintain the same revenue, but they don not for the most part. They are being used as a weapon to hurt Assad's backers Iran and Russia.
However, the U.S. has also been targeted.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-03/saudi-arabia-raises-asia-europe-prices-cuts-us-prices
Are the Saudis the partners they were in the 1980s?
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