Cease-Fire In Ukraine Fails And Preparations For War Begin -- Simon Shuster, Time
Ukraine and pro-Russian forces are arming for the next round of conflict
The shelling of Mariupol, a city on the front lines of the war in eastern Ukraine, resumed in earnest at the end of October, just as the country had finished electing a new parliament. It has not let up since. “Day and night, they have been bombing from two directions,” says Vasyl Arbuzov, an adviser to the local authorities in Mariupol, referring to the pro-Russian rebels who have approached the city from the east. “So most people, yes, are preparing for an invasion at any time, from minute to minute.”
If some of the locals still believed in the conflict’s cease-fire – the so-called Minsk protocol signed on Sept. 5 – they have been forced in the past week to part with their illusions. Both the Ukrainian forces and the pro-Russian separatists have been mobilizing troops and weapons for another round of vicious fighting, and the truce has all but broken down in the war that has already claimed some 4,000 lives since April.
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Update: In Ukraine, concerns rise of fresh conflict as peace plan collapses -- Fred Weir, CSM
My Comment: There are now battles occurring everywhere .... especially around enclaves of Ukrainian troops deep in rebel territory .... Surrounded by rebels, Ukrainian soldiers battle on (AFP). Also .... my sources in Moscow are now telling me that Russia is expecting a resumption of the war in the coming days/weeks .... and is positioning forces near the border .... a fact that NATO has also observed in the past few days .... NATO's Stoltenberg Says Russia Moves Troops Closer to Ukraine Border -- Moscow Times/Reuters
What's my opinion .... I still have trouble seeing a resumption of the civil war .... especially now. I am familiar with this region of Ukraine .... winter is about to settle in, and it is incredibly cold to fight under these conditions .... even more so in December/January. While the rebels will have the help of the local population, for Ukraine's army this will be hell. From the videos and pictures that I have seen .... they are not dressed properly for winter warfare, and they will essentially be living outside. In contrast to the rebels .... they have winter clothing (probably supplied by Russia), and they have the support of the locals. The roads will also be blocked with snow .... further isolating these Ukrainian units. They will be in every way easy targets for the rebels and for the Russian artillery across the border. I have told my Ukrainian friends in Kiev that this has the makings of another massacre .... but they are not listening.
8 comments:
I'm with you on this one WNU, regardless of where your sympathies lie in this conflict it is hard for me to imagine anything positive for the Ukraine to gain by restarting the fighting, especially now.
The so called Ceasefire plan, hinged on the Nationalists, pulling back from the cities, the airports and to evacuate the "cauldrons". They didn't do that, the most they did was pull back the "Punative Battalions", and that was to the Nationalists own benifit.
The Withdrawl would have stopped the city shellings, removed the points of contact, and was key to the shooting actually stopping.
For the Nationalists, this would have given the benifit of better defensive lines over the winter, a reduction in manpower, and a chance to build better esprit de corp.
The only drawback for the Nationalists, is they would have lost several footholds and junctions, which were only important for continuing the war.
I suspect that this new round of fighting, will be centered on the Federalists trying to force the Nationalists back from the cities, eliminate the cauldrons, straighten the lines, and put pressure on Mauripol so that the Nationalists have to hold back forces for defense.
Jay,
Sounds pretty plausible. Both sides have time and distance problems. The East will lose strength rapidly the farther they go from their base of support in the populace. It also starts to sap general morale the longer the let these Western footholds exist. For the West the longer quasi governmental institutions exist in the East the stronger they become. But does the East have the military ability to exploit the footholds and not let them become men and money pits, I don't know. But I know this, if the West tries and tries this soon, in the winter, with the Russians ready and on the border, it will be a stupendous gamble against what I think will be very long odds.
James,
While a lot of people spent time watching the Federalist's UTube streams for War Porn, I spent a lot of time watching them for their small unit tactics.
Tactically, the Federalists have the advantage. They have much better intel, use SRG Groups much more effectively, and really value manpower.
Recently, they just "forced" the evacuation of Checkpoint 32, and will soon force the evacuation of Checkpoint 3-, which will clear one of the Lughansk Cauldrons. They just basically constantly chew away at the defenders, in small, highly mobile groups, with a heavier reserve held well back, just to make defensive forays out, futile.
In the DPR and LPR, the Federalists will have the advantage of local resources, around Mauripol, it's a toss up.
While I can see the Nationalists launching a strike to try to end things, once and for all, the Federalist strategy seems to just be focused on local, tactical gains, that would allow them the space to actually build Republics.
Having followed a failed policy, I really don't understand why the Nationalists are now trying to double down on failed policies.
That makes two of us Jay in not understanding why the "Nationalists are now trying to double down on failed policies". I have met some of these people and I have talked to them .... and still .... and this bewilders me .... they are completely clueless on the eastern part of the country.
they fought in terrible winter conftions during ww2 it wont stop just cause winter is coming in
this is perfect condtions for rebels multiple cauldrens huge ukie casualties
Peter St. John .... I agree .... for the locals ... yes .... they are use to the weather. I recall my father telling me how the Nazis stayed away/minimized their presence from this region during the winter months. The partisans were incredibly effective using winter as their disguise and tool to attack supply lines. I suspect that the grandchildren of these partisans remember the stories well enough to be implementing that strategy today.
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