Monday, November 10, 2014

Ukraine's Civil War Could Explode In The Next 48 Hours



All-Out War Looms In Ukraine As Military Vehicles Move Towards Donetsk -- Sydney Morning Herald

Shakhtarsk, Ukraine: New columns of tanks, trucks and heavy artillery have rumbled towards the pro-Moscow rebel stronghold of Donetsk as fears grow of a return to all-out fighting in war-torn eastern Ukraine.

Meanwhile, a Ukrainian separatist leader met senators in Moscow after elections condemned by the US and the European Union, which warned it could increase sanctions on Russia if the conflict intensifies.

Intense weekend shelling around Donetsk and more armoured columns heading to the city have fuelled concerns the rebels could be gearing up for an offensive after weeks of localised skirmishes.

Read more ....

WNU Editor: The following news stories are indicative that war and hard times are ahead for Ukraine ....

Ukraine: More tanks heading towards Donetsk -- Euronews
Ukraine separatist leaders plot strategy with Russian lawmakers -- L.A. Times
Ukraine's currency plunges as ceasefire fears grow -- Reuters
Donetsk suffers heaviest shelling since Ukraine ceasefire -- Euronews

My Comment: This analysis is spot on .... Ukraine Could Explode in The Next 48 Hours -- Anna Nemtsova, Daily Beast

What's my prediction .... the Russian Security Council met last week to discuss Ukraine. A day later .... reports of a military buildup in the region starting surfacing ....first from the Ukraine military (reports which were unreliable), followed by international observers (whose reports were backed up by video footage). Something has obviously changed in the past week, and my gut is telling me that with winter fast approaching and a massive humanitarian crisis looming Moscow has made the decision to break the stalemate and to launch an attack in coordination with the rebels to dislodge Ukrainian troops positions in and around Donetsk.

2 comments:

Rhaegar said...

I agree, I have also read the article its a very good one and it also matches all the reports of increasing unrest that are escalting day after day.

Just to ask when do you think the war will resume with full intesity? A week or do you think it will take months? Also how to do you see the conflcit escalate, in an instant or will it just slowly but surely reach full civil war over a long time period? (many small questions in one, hope it's formulated ok enough to understand. It would be fine if you could give your opinion about this since it will be interseting to hear your opinions.)

2.
What do you think the response will be if the Russians intervene? From the US/NATO, EU, Ukrainaian govenrment etc?
3.
What do you think Poroshenko will do if Russia help the seps push out the troops, since do you think he will finaly back off or will he be pressured by the nationalists and Yatsenjuk to deklare war or go on a new offensive against the seps? It will be very helpfull to hear your view here since I dont know som much about Poroshenko and Yatsenjuk and I am not so familliar with how strong the Ukrainian nationalism is and how "radical" Poroshenko and Yatsenjuk are, so your opinion here will be very helpful

Unknown said...

Perfect timing

Obama is in Asia getting face time hobnobbing with other world leaders. Thus he can escape responsibility, because he wasn't at the white house where he could access the situation room. So it is all bad luck really. What could he do? He is just unlucky.

Later on Obama can use the headlines and news for a hot war to hide behind. a hot war will suck all the oxygen from other news stories. He can pass amnesty under the cover of a hot war. Never let a crisis go to waste.

Obama has become very flexible after 2012.