There Are Some Signs Ukraine Crisis Is Getting Less Intense -- Marcel Michelson, Forbes
Let’s be grateful for small mercies and welcome some signs that the crisis about Ukraine is getting less intense.
That is not to say that “peace is at hand” and that perhaps there are some cynical moves being played out but, still, the resumption of gas supplies and the Day of Silence are small steps in the right direction.
Russian President Vladimir Putin said in a state of the union speech earlier this week that his country wanted to continue cooperation with the West and there was a brief meeting with French President François Hollande and Putin in Moscow, a stop-over from Kazakhstan.
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My Comment: I was surprised that Putin was "low-key" in his comments on the crisis in Ukraine in his "State of the Union speech" .... Exclusive: Putin Cut Ukraine Criticism From Speech Ahead of Peace Talks (Simon Shuster, Time). Having said that ... I am still not optimistic on these talks. While it is true that the fighting has tapered off in the past few days .... this could be just the lull before the storm. The rebel leaders have also not been invited to any future talks, and if they are not involved there is very little chance that any peace deal can be implemented.
12 comments:
Putin, despite the clowning of Porshenko and Yats, is trying to keep the possibility of a United Ukraine, (less Crimea) open.
The ATO, the non-withdrawl, the continued shelling, and now, the cutting of services, has turned Federalists into Separatists.
So Putin has to try to make nice by not calling out the Ukraine, and by Sidelining the Seperatists,
And, it's not going to work, as the Ukraine and the US still think this can be solved with military action. The EU, is starting to edge towards Putin's view.
Jay ... what you just said .... I cannot say it any better.
When the Compromise Agreement was violently rejected, I really got the feeling that the Ukraine was going to be Yugoslaved.
A reformed United Ukraine, with the industry of the East, the agriculture of the West, the Tech sector, and with a dominant transit position on the New Silk Road, would have economically threatened the economies of Germany, France, and would bump the EU to the Global #2 position, threatening the US position.
A broken Ukraine provides all the cheap labour and raw resources of an African colony, with out the shipping costs.
Very good analyses. Where do you think the peace talks on friday is going to go? Also do you think there will be a resumption of the war or there will be reaced a poltical agreement? Any important news from the fedrealist media? Sorry if it is a lot of questions, but you seem to know very much of this crisis and you have good analysises.
Friday Peace Talks won't make much progress. The Ukraine Government is still getting empty over promises of Military and Economic support, and the Government position is still, all over the map, day by day, and they are still promising a military victory.
The OSCE will probably get some expanded mandates, perhaps a boost in protection, and more funding, (from Russia).
The wild card since the start, has been the Ukraine Government. If they think the ATO is the best option, or get convinced by "others" to continue the offensive, then the war will restart.
The Federalists are busy. They have been digging in, uparming, training, raising troops, and at the same time, trying to rebuilt a State infrastructure, aid the refugees and the inhabitants, deal with infrastructure damage and UXO.
If no one attacks them, and the ceasefire holds, they have more than enough to stay busy with until spring. If attacked, they will blunt, then eliminate the pockets, then go for grabbing more of the east.
There will not be a political settlement until the Ukraine realizes that they cannot win, and a political settlement may no longer be possible. It's kinda hard to make nice with the people who burned your people alive in the Odessa Trades Center, and cheered and celebrated as they died horribly.
Totaly agree Jay thanks for the answer, also one of the other factors I think can happen in the near future is a coup by the Exstreme nationalstic forces. Since they are armed and want a war with the Fedrealists, and Porky are now turned between peace and war, if he tryes to negotiate which I doubt since he refuses to talk to the Federalits leaders. Also yes the Odessa massacre a shame this hasent been investigated propably. The only thing the Ukrianian police in Odessa has done is arrested the pro russians who they mean "started the whole mess. Ironacly the people who burnt the building is still free. Also are the Svoboda guys still throwing polticians they dissagree with in the trash? And have you heard anything about a recent fight in the parliamntery, since it was mentioned on Radio Free Europe that this was the first fight in the now "democratic" parliament. If yes can you link to an article and a video of the fight, since I wonder if it is as intense as the ones prevoiusly fought in there in the previous year. Also when talking to friends about this crisis and reffer to the problems the Ukrainian government has made in the country to give both sides of the crisis. Since the fedrealists cause and the mistaces of the Ukrainian government is heavely underreported in my media. My friends just blame Russia and say they give the seps weapons and that they now have soldiers there, and that the conflict is Russia fault. I know Russia is to an limited degree involved but they are not the cause of all of the problems in Ukriane, what do I say to them or shall I just drop giving them an report from the "other side"?
IMHO, the Nationalists don't have the power, or enough support to pull off a coup, not that they won't try. An attempted coup would blow all aspects of the "project" beyond legitimacy, and would see the rump state of the Ukraine, abandoned by the EU.
Yes, the Right Sector is from time to time, still assaulting MP's and trash canning them.
Here is a link, to links about the most recent fight in the Rada,
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-04/fight-breaks-out-parliament-when-ukraine-learns-it-has-quietly-become-newest-us-stat
And it only counts as the first fight, if you time the current Government back to the most recent elections.
As for discussions with friends and family, it's kinda hard, as we have been propagandized from childhood about the Evil Soviets and Evil Russians. They pretty much have to have an open mind.
Again thank you. Also very good article from Zerohedge, a shame many pro westerners call these types of blogs etc who cover things western media dont, for propganda outlets. I have heard very much anti Putin propganda but the soviets haven't been mentioned much by friends/family and the media.
Also why have the Russians increased their airactivity? Since that's one thing that is very much reported in Norwegian media. I have tried looking for articles where NATO planes has spied near the Russian border or has had suspicius activity near the Russian border, but I only find articles where Russian airplanes has done this tings.
I can also reccomend you one Norwegian sourch he has some english articles, he is named Pål Steigan and is a Communist from one of the old Communist parties in Norway, I dont agree with those views but he is very good at covering things, but I think he overuse the term "fascist" a lot. Here: http://steigan.no/in-english/
He is not mainstream, he mostly covers cases the Norwegian mainstream media dosen't care to cover. I am not a Communist btw.
But thanks for answering my posts you are doing a good job, hope you continue to follow the Ukraine crisis, like to read your analyses.
Rhaegar,
You can't properly train for long range missions. ( combat) with out undertaking long range missions. If you want your aircrew to train on enemy radar systems, find vulnerabilities, deal with intercepts, it's a lot cheaper to just send them on a cruise down the Baltic flight lanes, than create, staff and pay for a range mimicing what the OPFOR can do.
In addition, ground crews, air controllers, etc all get trained too.
The Russian Airforce was stagnant, broken, for a long period of time, and has in the past few years, reached the condition of funding, training, maintenece, airframes and crews, where they can log these sort of practice hours once again.
When NATO and the US conduct these sort of foray's, they are "unreported". Not only have we been doing this since day one of the Cold War, but we have kept doing it day in and day out, so it is only news, when a U2 gets shot down, a Joint Rivet collides with one of their interceptors, etc.
Good to know, I am pretty blanc about air combat tactics, but this makes sense. Also the last thing before i go to bed is, have you heard anything about H. Res. 758? An american document, Steigan mentioned it, it said that USA cannow send lethal weapons too Ukraine and the most concerning thing for me, NATO article 5 is now applicable for Ukraine sinse it is now a non-ally ally. I have asked him for sources which he often links to, I can post some later but can you see if this is true? Since if it is this is in my eyes a potential disaster.
The HR is, other than Article 11, just an "official" statement of the "unofficial" US position.
As it is a House Resolution, it's as binding as spit,....all it is, is a sample of support for War with Russia.
The Association Agreement, simply is a statement of principals on working towards interoperability, joint training, and joint exercises. It provides no Article 5 protections, and in fact, NATO Membership is barred to Nations with unsettled land claims and border conflicts.
Ok, thank you Jay.
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