Smoke rises over Syrian town of Kobani after an airstrike, as seen from the Mursitpinar border crossing on the Turkish-Syrian border in the southeastern town of Suruc in Sanliurfa province, October 18, 2014. Reuters/Kai Pfaffenbach
Washington Post editorial: The U.S. fight against jihadism has lost its momentum
WNU Editor: The Washington Post clearly believes that the war against the Islamic State/al Qaeda is losing momentum .... citing recent IS territorial gains and frustration among Iraqi officials that the U.S. war effort is falling short as well as an uptick in Al Qaeda inspired terror attacks in Europe. What's my take .... the Washington Post's editorial board is probably right. The solution is to expand the war effort, but there is a great deal of reluctance among the U.S. public to pursue such a direction .... and the White House is (understandably) reflecting this mood. They (the White House) know that the first step necessary to change the momentum would be to have U.S. Special Forces on the ground directing air strikes against IS targets in Iraq .... and after that .... U.S. combat troops. Faced with such a choice ... and no clear end game/exit strategy .... with the exception of war hawks like Sen. McCain/Sen. Graham/etc. .... public support to re-engage into another Iraq war (for example) is minimal at best .... and when the body bags and costs start to escalate .... I would wager that it would probably plummet to 80% strongly against. As to the other conflict zones .... Syria, Yemen, Libya, Nigeria, etc. .... those are even greater "black-holes" that will need the deployment of massive resources to make a difference .... resources that the U.S. also has little if any interest to risk.
In the end .... we in the West do need to have a debate on what is important to our national interests/security needs .... and what should be done. But for the moment we are not having that debate .... just a piecemeal policy of a little bit here and a little bit there .... and hoping that everything works out for the best. Hell .... we are not even in agreement on how to define this conflict .... with the White House even ruling out that we are in a war against radical Islam.
13 comments:
It's kinda a "stupid" question based in false perceptions.
While on one hand, this is a "war", with infantry units, targets and territory,
On the other hand, it is a conflict with a strain of terrorism, of which military responses, have historically less than sucessful and often, counterproductive.
We are still at " war", with the Islamic Courts/al Shabbah in Somalia, and have been for over 30 years, and over that thirty years, it has always been an ebb and flow conflict.
Yes .... it has always been an ebb and flow conflict. But it is changing right now .... in the past groups like Al Qaeda could only dream of being able to "own and control" a territory or region .... today with the Islamic State in Syria/Iraq, Al Qaeda in Yemen, Boko Haram, Islamic extremist groups in Libya .... they have to certain degree achieved that .... and (for the moment) they are definitely well entrenched to hold it. Again .... Bin Laden could only dream a dozen years ago of having that type of position. Now .... it is a reality for many of these groups. Tomorrow .... I can only shudder if this trend continues.
When the first Loya Jurga was called, and all the people who could have/were interested in "fixing" Afghanistan, were sidelined in favour of the Warlords, the future of Afghanistan, was set in stone.
In Iraq, debaathification, the lists system, contracting out the repair of Iraq, and the 4 year stalling on Democracy, to try to put Curveball and his Gangsters in charge, made the future of Iraq, guaranteed.
So, yup, it will keep on going, and grow bigger, larger, and spread further and further.
What is very sad, though, is that the Muslim world still has the spirit of jihad, and we in the West are still stuck in the mindset of the Enlightenment, in which the idea of Holy War or a Crusade is mocked and seen as lunacy, and where secular wars are praised over religious wars.
It's not about Jihad. That's just an excuse.
In the Korrengal Valley, the US had put the Warlord, Ahmet Shah, in charge of the Province. He awarded the timber and mines to his tribe, the Sharzi, when in fact, the timber and mines had been owned for hundreds of years by the Tarqi and Hazar tribes, who actually lived there.
When Sharzi loggers were turned back by Tarqi and Hazar militia, Shah called them Taliban and called in the Marines on them. It took the Marines a year to fight their way in, and 3 years for the Tribes to drive them out. They took 3257 casualties to try to rip off the local inhabitants in the service of a corrupt Warlord. The Tarqi and Hazar wern't Taliban to begin with, but they are now. The Korrengal still remains a no-go area for US Forces, the IASF, the ANA and Afghan Police, yet we still bomb and drone the area, 6 years on.
When the Brits took Nigeria, the Soldier/Diplomats in charge took to the nomadic, desert warrior, Islamic Calphonates of the Hausa, and didn't much like the democratic animist Ibo, even when they converted to Christianity, or the communal Yoruba either, so they put the Hausa in charge.
After Independence, running the Police, the Army, the Government, the Hausa stayed in charge, and when the Ibo, who had all the oil and minerals, declared independence and tried to set up their own country, Biafra, the World aided the Hausa in killing 3 million Ibo.
When the various Dictatorships finally gave way to Democracy, the Hausa lost out at the polls to the Yourba and Ibo, and corrupt Governments, who could have balanced out this loss of power, instead, continued to loot the country, this time including the Hausa areas.
When the disaffected Hausa protested, they got brutalized by the Military, and Boko Haram was born.
Every major "Islamic Themed" revolt, has The Losers at economic and political power games at it's core.
Im not going to knock your knowledge of the intricacies of each individual conflict Jay, I'm just a simple anonymous online activist with a mission regarding one single sphere of interest.
Your knowledge in these areas far outweigh my own, I read it, respect it and it is appreciated.
What I see is that all these conflicts have started as you mention, however, what they have all morphed into and linked up with others, is far greater than their original starting point aka Global Islamic Jihad...
And it is definitely going to get worse globally unless we who oppose it, link up to combat radical fundamentalist Islam instead of all these half hearted piecemeal attempts...
But Mattathias,
You've got a friend!
His CV for his current job is bumbling from one failure to another but that tribute is just plain embarrassing..
Help me James, give me strength!!
The problem is a chicken vs. egg one, but with Velociraptors, not chickens.
In a thread, about a week ago, I posted a link to the DSGE interviews, with four French Journalists, who's prison jailer and torturer, when they were held in Syria, became the Synagogue Shooter. The guy was completely ignorant of Islam, kile French show tunes and inline porn, but liked most of all, killing and torturing people, because it gave him, ( a loser), status and power.
The Tarqi and Hazar wern't Tafquiri's, were never exposed to Wahabbism, but in their war against the thief Ahmet Shah and his enforcers, the Marines, the Taliban started aid with weapons and training, and followed up with Mullah's and Madrassa's.
The Hausa who formed Boko Haram, saw the Caliph and the Sheiks, sending their kids to Oxford, using cell phones, driving Mercedes SUV's building new mansions, while their villages were cut off the century old gravy train, got poorer and poorer, and Ibo and Yourba traders and merchants moved in and started making all the money. The only thing most of them had for an education, was a basic instruction in the Quran.
By coming late to the party, with a one size fits all, GWO(Islamic)T, how many eggs have we hatched?
ISIS, is in many regards, a "perfect" example. The Sunni Tribes, who we need as allies, have been gutted by ISIS, because basically, the time to "stand them up", was 2003, but instead, we alternatly beat on them, ignored them or bribed them, and now, it's too late.
Mattathias,
Of all the things great and small I have done and experienced in my life this one takes the cake. Not even the mighty Clouseau himself could top it. If WNU hasn't come to his senses and ran me off, please my contribution above.
Jay .... it is too bad that you never met my uncle. He fought in Afghanistan during the Soviet invasion/occupation .... and when the U.S. moved into Afghanistan he said exactly what you outlined in this comment thread. Ignorance of the culture doomed the Soviets .... and ... as we now know ... later doomed the ISAF.
Interestingly .... a couple of years ago a public relations person in the Pentagon who enjoyed (still enjoys) reading this blog got me onto a Pentagon panel discussion (on one of their radio programs) on what did the Soviets do wrong in Afghanistan .... and is the U.S./ISAF committing the same mistakes. I just channeled my uncle .... and the response that I got (according to the host of the program) was overwhelmingly positive and that his producer wanted me to come back more often to discuss the Soviet experience in Afghanistan. But .... according to my source .... I did not make some people in the Pentagon happy with my comments. he wanted me back as a follow-up, but he was told to tell me that if I wanted to go back on, I had to submit to a full security check .... yeah right .... I knew that my CV would be enough to ban me forever from the Pentagon ... which (as my friend hinted to me) was the intention.
Sighhh .... free flowing debate and discussion from all sides is one of those vital ingredients that a country and its military needs to be successful. Unfortunately .... Iraq/Afghanistan/the present wars .... that debate is not happening, and we are suffering because of it.
We arn't suffering, anything like the Iraqi's, the Syrians, the Nigerians, the Mali, the Afghans, the NTA,
But, if we don't start changing our approach, the wars will continue to expand, and sooner or later, the war will come home.
As the US Military found in Iraq, they couldn't kill "them", as fast as their actions were creating "them".
On the bright side, Lebanon, other than the refugee crisis, is keeping it together, and Ghani's Warlord Free Cabinet, is the first positive move in Afghanistan, too bad it's 12 years too late.
You must be reading my mind Jay. What Afghan President Ghani is trying to do is my 21:00 post.
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