Christian Science Monitor/AP: Hollande: 'Rather strong' autonomy for east Ukraine on the table
French President Francois Hollande, traveling to Kiev and Moscow with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, said a deal to end the Ukraine crisis could include a demilitarized zone and greater autonomy for the separatist eastern region.
WNU Editor: I thought that I would never see myself saying this .... but French President Hollande is right .... this is one of the last chances for peace .... Ukraine crisis: 'Last chance' for peace says Hollande (BBC). He is also right that this deal recognizes the uniqueness of eastern Ukraine, and it will give greater autonomy to the eastern regions .... which is what the eastern regions originally wanted before the civil war broke out. But there are a few very serious potential obstacles to such a deal .... on the rebel side there is a very good chance that they may not accept the provisions of this agreement. Too much blood and destruction has been shed .... and they no longer trust Poroshenko and the Ukraine government. They are also winning on the battlefield .... and the idea of an independent state now has a certain appeal to many eastern Ukrainians. But I believe that if given the proper "protections" and "guarantees" from Moscow .... the rebel side may accept it .... albeit reluctantly.
What I see is the bigger obstacle is on the Ukrainian side. Ukraine President Poroshenko indicated last week that the idea of a federated Ukraine was not acceptable to him, but this deal calls for a Ukraine that he vowed would never happen. There is also the problem of the past .... Ukraine has not respected these demilitarized zones in the past .... and there is a part of me that believes that Kiev may actually accept this deal while gearing up for a bigger conflict in the future. There is also a problem on what the U.S. may do .... they have been frozen out of these talks ..... revealing a Europe and U.S. split that has surprised many .... Europe and U.S. clash over how to confront Putin on Ukraine (Reuters). But no one should be surprised .... U.S. policies and initiatives in this conflict have been extremely damaging. Broken promises coupled with hints that military aid may be coming in .... this is not a solution to the crisis .... but a means to inflame it. What I am deeply worried about is that the U.S. may now give Ukraine President Poroshenko what he wants .... a further promise of economic/political and military aid .... thereby giving Poroshenko the encouragement to ignore the intent and spirit of this German-French brokered deal .... and to resume the conflict and/or to sabotage it when it is implemented.
But in the end .... this deal may be accepted by Ukraine because a bigger crisis is now rearing its head. The Ukraine economy and currency has collapsed .... Ukraine’s currency just collapsed 50 percent in two days (Washington Post) .... and there are now millions of young people out of work. There is no money to pay government workers, pensions, nor the ability to provide proper services. This in turn has produced an incredible amount of anger and frustration throughout Ukraine .... and while the war has diverted people's attention away from their economic problems .... the economic problems are now becoming to big that even the war cannot camouflage it.
On Sunday there is going to be conference call between Putin, Merkel, Hollande, and Poroshenko .... we will have a very good idea then on where is this peace process going .... and will it succeed.
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