Roman Olearchyk, Financial Times: Debaltseve fighting threatens Ukraine ceasefire
Ukraine claimed on Monday that at least five of its troops had been killed and 25 injured since an internationally brokered truce took effect on Sunday, as Russian-backed separatist attacks continued on a key railway hub where thousands of government troops are reported to have been surrounded.
WNU Editor: The failure to resolve the issue of Debaltseve during last weeks peace talks at Minsk was a heads-up to me and others that the ceasefire was not going to hold. Ukraine's refusal to withdraw from the town .... even though surrounded by pro-Russian rebels .... is now a guarantee that this is going to be a long and bloody battle that will spread to other parts of the front line. Reports are already coming in that fighting is restarting near Mariupol, and Donetsk itself is not receiving sporadic shells.
8 comments:
(1) If the Ukraine army had withdrawn, would the rebels have consolidated and launched another offensive in a month or 2?
If your army is surrounded and you cannot extricate them pr put last the besiegers it would be better to get the diplomatic victory however slight than to suffer a military defeat of losing all those units. It seems stupid like Stalingrad.
Pull them out under the peace agreement and shorten your line, maintain your troops, ...
If you are actually negotiating a treaty and you are severely stretched economically & militarily, risking a large army group for a town/city is really not worth it.
Keeping an army in the field & as a potential threat is usually worth more than than facing 50+% of losing it.
Once you lose it they no longer have to negotiate with you.
The answer is probably yes, and I would bet on Northern Luhansk, mostly for th lack or protection by the Ukrainian Army or the South west to encircle Mariupol.
I just would like to know who made this decison and what was the idea. In Stalingrad Hitler made it, and he was more like a political person than strategy expert. But here in one case Poroshenko (or others from the current government) made a political decision, and in another case the Ukrainian Army made this decision. I do not even know which one is the worst. If it was political, I can understand that in some way, because at least they do not know how things going on the frontline, but if the Army made this, it's a clear sign that ATO (or simple just UA) cannot win not the war, but even a single battle.
Since the fall of Slaviansk, when DNR retreated back to Doneck, there were no military victories for the UA. Yes, they tried to encircle the city of Doneck, but after the very first success they were defeated and Debaltsevo is just the last remained location from that operation. It's a clear example for everyone to how not make an encircle operation. This UA operation reminded me for Operation Citadel, which ended with the same result, and was not so far away from there.
There are reports that a small Ukrainian convoy got out from the pocket, even if not everyone made it out. This point out, that the encircle not hermetical, more likely just fire control, just like the current one made by SAA in Aleppo, Syria. This can give some hope to the defenders, but not much. The village of Chornukhyne is about to fall, and who knows how long ATO can stand the ground. But for me it's still not clear how many UA soldier are in the pocket. At first, just two weeks ago the reports were about 2000 UA soldier, but this week some sources reported 8000 soldier. I hardly can belive that 8000 soldier defending Debaltsevo, it's more like a made number to gather attention or to make deception. Anyway UA can hardly handle the loss of 8000, not even mentioning the change in morale. And I see almost zero chance that separatist will stop the siege.
Anyway, while we waiting for more news and development on the front, for those who are interested here are two good video source on this subject:
Patric Lancaster's channel, who reporiting from Debaltsevo and working with Grahham Philips. They make great footages and show very well how the war actually going on. Here is a fresh example: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jvbt75sY5z4
The other one is Icorpus, and they have high quality footages from the frontlines: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AHtbWXog-d4
László Mikó you are asking the same questions that I am asking my friends in Kiev ... who is responsible for a good part of the Ukraine military being surrounded in Debaltseve? For what it is worth .... they are blaming the military, intelligence, and a breakdown in communications and coordination.
I have also asked how many soldiers are in this pocket .... but I have been told (understandably so) that it is a secret. But have my sources .... and one source tells me (and I trust this source) that there are about 1500 men Ukrainian military personnel in the pocket .... how many volunteers and militia .... that is a number that skews everything.
Thank you for the YouTube links .... these are the first time that I am looking at them.
I think the Kiev govt was politically unwilling to admit the encirclement. This actually played into Russian hands st Minsk. If there is no encirclement then why address it in the ceasefire terms?
Thanks for the informations, and you are welcome about the videos. Here is another recent video from Debaltsevo, showing a cought UA convoy: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TCadYqseQPQ
Thank you for the last video. I will be posting them later tonight. Unfortunately I understand Russian and Ukrainian .... what they are saying in these videos is very distressing .... but it is what it is.
WNU Editor,
"Salients" are great offensive positions, as you are already deep into the enemies lines, can attack outwards in three directions, encircle enemy positons, or even cause the withdrawl of enemy forces on the flanks, with out combat, as they retreat to avoid encirclement.
Concentrating troops and equiptment inside the salient allows foreshortened supply lines and defensive lines.
When the salient get's surrounded, however,......
Salients are great. it all depends who has the momentum, initiative, will & manpower.
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